数据显示市场降温：澳洲各首府城市的拍卖量周比下滑 11.1% 至 1,939 场，而雪梨的成交率降至 49.2%，为疫情以来最低。Cotality 表示雪梨房价正在下跌，而且 4 月全国房价成长是自 2025 年初以来最慢的。雪梨住宅价值在 5 年内上涨超过 21%，但开放看屋的到访人数已从一年前的每处 3.4 人降至 2.1 人；包括 Sarah Hunter、Robert Thompson、Nerida Conisbee 和 Tim Lawless 在内的市场参与者表示，利率上升与联邦预算中的房产税改革正在加剧谨慎情绪。
其影响不只限于转售住宅：住房是澳洲 A$10 trillion 房地产市场与财富效应的核心，而四大银行的贷款簿中约有 60% 到 70% 是住宅按揭，投资者则持有约三分之一的全部按揭。新建案也承受压力，独立式住宅建造成本大约比疫情前高 50%，而新屋批准量在 3 月下降超过 10%。当局希望在本十年末前新增 1.2 million 间新房，但 National Housing Supply and Affordability Council 预计在当前情况下只能达到约 980,000 间；即便如此，RBA 估计按揭持有人中少于 1% 处于负资产，显示尽管目前市场下行，资产负债表仍相对有韧性。
Sydney’s housing market is losing momentum, illustrated by a Putney auction where a three-bedroom villa drew only one bid, just above its A$1.75 million guide, after a bidder withdrew over federal budget changes and another lacked financing. Agents say this is a sharp contrast with stronger periods, when 8 to 10 bidders were common, and it reflects broader weakness across Sydney’s wealthy northern suburbs as inflation, higher borrowing costs, poor affordability, and investor tax changes weigh on demand.
The data point to a cooler market: auctions across Australia’s capital cities fell 11.1% week on week to 1,939, while Sydney’s clearance rate dropped to 49.2%, the lowest since the pandemic. Cotality says Sydney prices are falling and nationwide price growth in April was the slowest since early 2025. Sydney home values have risen more than 21% over 5 years, yet attendance at open houses has slipped to 2.1 people per property from 3.4 a year earlier, and market participants including Sarah Hunter, Robert Thompson, Nerida Conisbee, and Tim Lawless say rate rises and the federal budget’s property tax reforms are amplifying caution.
The implications are wider than resale homes: housing is central to Australia’s A$10 trillion property market and the wealth effect, while the big four banks have about 60% to 70% of loan books in residential mortgages and investors hold about one-third of all mortgages. New construction is also under pressure, with detached house building costs roughly 50% higher than before the pandemic and new home approvals down more than 10% in March. Authorities want 1.2 million new homes by decade-end, but the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council expects only about 980,000 under current conditions; even so, the RBA estimates fewer than 1% of mortgage holders are in negative equity, suggesting balance sheets remain relatively resilient despite the current downturn.