数据呈现改善但标准与可持续性受质疑。2014–2021 年农村居民人均可支配收入增幅逾 80%，升至高于 Rmb18,000，并宣称把贵州最后 9 个县移出贫困名单；但 World Bank 以 $3／日标准下可视为「已消除」，其对上中等收入国家的线却是 2021 年价格 $8.30／日，至 2022 年仍有逾五分之一人口处于贫困。Robert Walker 与 Bill Bikales 指出，名目上达标不等于长期脱贫；名单在 2013 后更新不足，疫情、房地产下行、地方负债与消费疲弱使新增与返贫难以被计入；中国亦将 2026 年增长目标订为 4.5–5%。
搬迁是核心工具之一：官方称 2020 年为减贫安置近 10mn 人，贵州到 2019 年的搬迁规模逾冰岛全国人口的 5 倍；但就业与社会保障不足使成效分化。被迁居者 Sister Wu 称工厂薪资偏低且常空置，手工仅 Rmb30–Rmb40／日且劳损，旧居还被拆；相对地，榕江以 *cunchao* 带动观光，政府称其 2023 年贡献县内 Rmb9.6bn GDP 的约 90%。地方财政脆弱亦放大冲击：洪灾致 6 人死亡；经营纺织厂的 Pan 年收约 Rmb100,000，前期投入 Rmb1mn，但灾后更换设备需 Rmb700,000–Rmb800,000 且未获补助。
China says it ended extreme poverty: Xi Jinping declared a “complete victory” in 2021, ending an eight-year drive to push the last 100mn people above a poverty line set at Rmb2,300 a year (about $330) at 2010 prices; over less than half a century, it says more than 700mn people were moved over the threshold. Yet ground-level accounts suggest continuing hardship: in Guizhou, Dong villager Yang Nai Yan Qing lives on under Rmb200 ($29) a month, earns only Rmb3 a day when craft work is available, and relies on remittances for larger bills.
The numbers show gains, but the standard and durability are contested. From 2014 to 2021, average rural disposable incomes rose by more than 80% to above Rmb18,000, and China said it removed Guizhou’s last nine counties from its poverty list; China also meets the World Bank’s $3-a-day line. But the World Bank’s upper-middle-income poverty line is $8.30 a day (2021 prices), under which more than one in five people were still poor by 2022. Robert Walker and Bill Bikales argue nominal success is not permanent exit: a largely static 2013 list, plus Covid-19, the property slump, local debt, and weak demand, can create newly poor households that go uncounted; China’s 2026 growth target is 4.5–5%.
Relocation was a signature tool: China said it resettled nearly 10mn people for poverty alleviation in 2020, and Guizhou by 2019 had moved more than five times Iceland’s population; but thin jobs and safety nets split outcomes. Sister Wu says factories are low-paid and often empty, handicrafts pay only Rmb30–Rmb40 a day and cause pain, and her old home was demolished; by contrast, Rongjiang’s *cunchao* tourism boom was said to generate about 90% of 2023 GDP of Rmb9.6bn. Fiscal fragility amplifies shocks: floods killed six people; textile mill owner Pan earns about Rmb100,000 a year after a Rmb1mn outlay, but needs Rmb700,000–Rmb800,000 to replace ruined machines and says he received no compensation.