在2月3日萨义夫·卡扎菲被枪杀后，葬礼从全国各地吸引人群前往巴尼沃利德，突显出尽管他被国际刑事法院起诉，他仍是一个怀旧象征。关键时间线显示，距离2011年推翻其父亲的起义已过去15年，而2月17日周年纪念几乎在沉默中度过，反映出强烈而被动员的公众失望情绪。
这种支持几乎没有转化为可执行的权力：他虽在大约10年前获释，却从未建立领土、资金、武器或忠诚武装，而且据称袭击者在枪击他19次前关闭了摄像头。继任储备也在收缩，穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲4名亲生儿子已死亡，其他幸存子女大多流亡或退出政治，而德贝巴阵营与哈夫塔尔阵营据称已阻挠选举近10年。
宏观数据揭示系统性掠夺而非国家修复：分析人士称，在2025年名义上稳定的石油生产下，去年超过300亿美元预期石油收入中有80亿美元消失，约占27%。自2020年未遂的的黎波里围城以来，两大权力集团持续分赃，在1月巴黎会晤后开启自2007年以来首次新油气招标；与此同时，流动性紧张、黑市第纳尔走弱、主食价格上涨，且约30个圣战组织仍在无治理空间中活动。
After Saif al-Islam Qaddafi was killed on February 3, his funeral drew crowds from across Libya to Bani Walid, signaling that he remained a nostalgia figure despite his ICC indictment. The timeline is stark: 15 years after the 2011 uprising that toppled his father, the February 17 anniversary passed in near silence, indicating deep and mobilized public disillusionment.
That support translated into almost no usable power: although he was released about a decade ago, he never built territory, money, arms, or loyal forces, and alleged attackers reportedly disabled cameras before shooting him 19 times. The succession bench is also shrinking, with four of Muammar Qaddafi’s biological sons dead and most surviving children in exile or retired from politics, while Dbeiba and Haftar factions have reportedly blocked elections for nearly a decade.
The macro numbers point to systemic extraction rather than state recovery: analysts say that despite nominally steady oil output in 2025, $8bn disappeared from more than $30bn in expected oil revenue last year, roughly a 27% gap. Since the abortive 2020 Tripoli siege, the two power blocs have kept sharing rents, then launched the first new oil-concession bidding round since 2007 after a January Paris meeting; meanwhile, liquidity is tight, the dinar is weakening on the black market, staple prices are rising, and about 30 jihadist groups remain active in ungoverned areas.
Source: Libya has no good options for leaders
Subtitle: Mourning at the death of a man indicted for crimes against humanity highlights Libya’s bleakness
Dateline: 2月 19, 2026 04:18 上午