中国对金属供应链的主导地位源于三十年的投资与补贴策略。西方国家过去为追求低成本与减少污染，主动将矿物加工外包给中国，尽管2010年中日稀土争端已发出警讯，这种依赖仍持续加深。如今，中国透过出口许可制度掌控金属流向，迫使海外买家提供详细用途资讯，并将企业维持在「不死不活」的状态。钨、镓等金属价格飙升，库存急剧下降，西方国防与半导体产业面临严峻的供应危机。
为应对供应风险，美国自2022年以来宣布约400亿美元的矿产资金支持，欧盟也投入数十亿欧元加速战略项目。多国竞相建立国内矿产储备与加工能力，但专家警告，若各国缺乏协调，可能导致市场扭曲和产能过剩。中国随时可恢复大规模出口以压垮新兴竞争者，因此新生产商需要政府长期支持与买家承诺。文章强调，真正的解决之道不在于每个国家自给自足，而在于建立多元化、不可中断的多边供应体系。
Rare earth metals have become a flashpoint in the escalating US-China trade war. The article traces the history of yttrium's discovery in 18th-century Sweden to its present-day strategic importance in AI chip manufacturing. China dominates global production and processing of yttrium, gallium, germanium, and other critical metals. As Beijing imposes increasingly stringent export controls, Western semiconductor, defence, and automotive industries face acute supply shortages. Industry executives describe the situation as creating 'panic' and warn of an 'existential risk' to supply chains, with some companies potentially forced to halt production within months.
China's stranglehold on metals supply chains is the product of decades of deliberate investment, while Western nations willingly outsourced mineral processing to pursue cheaper labour and cleaner environments at home. Despite a 2010 warning when Beijing restricted Japan's rare earth access, Western dependence on Chinese metals only deepened. Now, China operates a licensing regime that controls who receives which minerals, gathering intelligence on foreign companies' supply chains while keeping buyers in a state of managed uncertainty. Tungsten, gallium, and rare earth prices have surged, stockpiles are dwindling, and defence contractors cannot secure the materials they need for munitions and advanced systems.
In response, the US has committed roughly $40 billion in minerals funding, the EU has earmarked billions of euros for strategic projects, and multiple nations are racing to build domestic stockpiles and processing capacity. However, experts caution that uncoordinated resource nationalism risks market distortion and oversupply in niche metals. Six non-Chinese companies alone have announced gallium production plans that could collectively meet nearly half of global demand, yet China could easily crash prices by resuming unrestricted exports. The article argues that lasting solutions require multilateral coordination rather than autarky, drawing parallels to the cooperative oil stockpiling response after the 1970s energy crisis, and emphasising that the goal should be resilient, diversified supply lines rather than outright decoupling from China. (Key numbers: 2022, 400)