中國對金屬供應鏈的主導地位源於三十年的投資與補貼策略。西方國家過去為追求低成本與減少污染，主動將礦物加工外包給中國，儘管2010年中日稀土爭端已發出警訊，這種依賴仍持續加深。如今，中國透過出口許可制度掌控金屬流向，迫使海外買家提供詳細用途資訊，並將企業維持在「不死不活」的狀態。鎢、鎵等金屬價格飆升，庫存急劇下降，西方國防與半導體產業面臨嚴峻的供應危機。
為應對供應風險，美國自2022年以來宣布約400億美元的礦產資金支持，歐盟也投入數十億歐元加速戰略項目。多國競相建立國內礦產儲備與加工能力，但專家警告，若各國缺乏協調，可能導致市場扭曲和產能過剩。中國隨時可恢復大規模出口以壓垮新興競爭者，因此新生產商需要政府長期支持與買家承諾。文章強調，真正的解決之道不在於每個國家自給自足，而在於建立多元化、不可中斷的多邊供應體系。
Rare earth metals have become a flashpoint in the escalating US-China trade war. The article traces the history of yttrium's discovery in 18th-century Sweden to its present-day strategic importance in AI chip manufacturing. China dominates global production and processing of yttrium, gallium, germanium, and other critical metals. As Beijing imposes increasingly stringent export controls, Western semiconductor, defence, and automotive industries face acute supply shortages. Industry executives describe the situation as creating 'panic' and warn of an 'existential risk' to supply chains, with some companies potentially forced to halt production within months.
China's stranglehold on metals supply chains is the product of decades of deliberate investment, while Western nations willingly outsourced mineral processing to pursue cheaper labour and cleaner environments at home. Despite a 2010 warning when Beijing restricted Japan's rare earth access, Western dependence on Chinese metals only deepened. Now, China operates a licensing regime that controls who receives which minerals, gathering intelligence on foreign companies' supply chains while keeping buyers in a state of managed uncertainty. Tungsten, gallium, and rare earth prices have surged, stockpiles are dwindling, and defence contractors cannot secure the materials they need for munitions and advanced systems.
In response, the US has committed roughly $40 billion in minerals funding, the EU has earmarked billions of euros for strategic projects, and multiple nations are racing to build domestic stockpiles and processing capacity. However, experts caution that uncoordinated resource nationalism risks market distortion and oversupply in niche metals. Six non-Chinese companies alone have announced gallium production plans that could collectively meet nearly half of global demand, yet China could easily crash prices by resuming unrestricted exports. The article argues that lasting solutions require multilateral coordination rather than autarky, drawing parallels to the cooperative oil stockpiling response after the 1970s energy crisis, and emphasising that the goal should be resilient, diversified supply lines rather than outright decoupling from China. (Key numbers: 2022, 400)