科技公司维持私有状态的时间比以往更长，大量资本涌入少数新创企业，这使得创投基金的有限合伙人长期等待流动性与获利。然而，SpaceX 本月稍早的首次公开发行——部分投资者自 Elon Musk 创立该公司 24 年来便持续支持——以及 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 即将到来的 IPO，正推动市场上出现大量新基金。例如，Menlo Ventures 刚完成其史上最大规模的 30 亿美元（约 957 亿新台币）募资，专注于投资各阶段的人工智慧新创企业，其策略核心源自对 Anthropic 的押注。
Menlo Ventures 累计向 Anthropic 投入约 10 亿美元（约 319 亿新台币），目前该持股价值已达 140 亿美元（约 4,466 亿新台币）。作为对比，Menlo 在其 50 年历史中总共向有限合伙人返还超过 89 亿美元（约 2,839 亿新台币）。若 Anthropic 的 IPO 顺利完成，这将成为 Menlo 有史以来最佳的投资回报。与此同时，由 Elon Musk 的亲密盟友 Antonio Gracias 领导的 Valor Equity Partners 正在募集一支 25 亿美元（约 797 亿新台币）的基金来投资新创企业，该公司已持有 SpaceX 4% 的股权，并已向这家火箭、人工智慧与社群媒体公司投入资金。
这两家创投公司的雄心彰显了在明星企业上市前支持它们所带来的光环效应，类似 Benchmark 投资 eBay 或 Kleiner Perkins 押注 Google 的经典案例。尽管过去两年 IPO 匮乏引发了创投业的流动性危机，令人担忧基金规模可能缩水，但顶级机构的情况恰恰相反。OpenAI 募集了矽谷史上最大的融资轮，Andreessen Horowitz 担任联合领投；Anthropic 最新一轮 650 亿美元的 H 轮融资则由四家创投联合领投。即便 OpenAI 与 Anthropic 尚未正式 IPO，仅仅是上市的预期就足以推动基金规模急剧膨胀，而真正的问题在于：未来是否还会有足以支撑如此庞大基金规模的企业，抑或这已是高峰，调整即将到来。
Technology companies are staying private longer than ever as unprecedented capital floods into a small cohort of startups, creating tension between venture capitalists and their limited partners awaiting liquidity and profits. However, SpaceX's IPO earlier this month—offering gargantuan returns to some investors who backed Elon Musk's company since its founding 24 years ago—along with the impending IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic, is driving a surge of new funds. For instance, Menlo Ventures just closed its largest haul ever, a $3 billion set of funds targeting AI startups across all stages, with its strategy anchored by its bet on Anthropic.
Menlo has invested approximately $1 billion in Anthropic over time, a stake now worth $14 billion. For context, across its 50-year history, Menlo has returned more than $8.9 billion total to limited partners, meaning Anthropic's coming IPO could yield the firm's best return ever. Meanwhile, Valor Equity Partners, led by close Musk ally Antonio Gracias, is raising a $2.5 billion fund to back startups; the firm already owns 4% of SpaceX and has committed capital to the rocket, AI, and social media company.
The ambitions of both VC firms underscore the halo effect of backing star companies pre-IPO, echoing landmark bets like Benchmark's eBay investment and Kleiner Perkins' wager on Google. Despite a two-year liquidity crisis in venture capital driven by an IPO dearth, top-tier firms have defied expectations of shrinking fund sizes. When OpenAI raised the largest funding round in Silicon Valley history, Andreessen Horowitz co-led the deal, and Anthropic's latest $65 billion Series H round named four VCs as co-leads. Even though OpenAI and Anthropic have yet to formally IPO, the mere prospect of going public has been enough to balloon fund sizes—raising the critical question of whether future companies will warrant such massive funds or whether this represents a peak with a correction ahead. (Key numbers: 650)