中国税务总署近期加大了对「循环开票」做法的监管，目的是打击虚假交易及虚增经济增长，核心打击标的涉及贵金属贸易中的发票环节。受访人士指出，上海的铜、铝与白银交易商是受影响范围最广的群体，许多公司因配额被大幅下调而被迫暂停业务，等待地方税务部门重新核发发票额度。当地市场参与者担忧，配额缩减可能已超出对可疑交易打击的边界，进一步抑制了真实的现货交易流转。

实体交易活动已显著放缓。部分持有下月到货铜货的交易商无法开具给供应商的收货凭证，另一些则连日未见报价与申报。多家交易行反映其现货铜市场交易几乎完全干涸。根据 Mysteel Global 对冶炼企业、交易商与加工商调查，截止本周星期四，中国现货铜日均交易量降至24,925公吨，当月多周持续下滑，较3月份每周最高31,920公吨下降22%，研究机构认为发票可得性收紧是主要推力之一。

发票在中国不只是报价文件，也是确认收入、申报进项增值税抵扣、使交易具合法效力的关键；在大宗商品市场，发票同时是所有权证明并可用于向银行获取短期融资。近年中国持续打击为套现融资、抬高销售额而进行的虚假交易，后者并未反映有形金属需求，并偏离资金支持实体经济的政策方向。近期被称为「发票经济」的整治进入密集期，国家税务总局称其破坏公平竞争并打断统一国家市场；第一季统计显示，批发煤炭发票总额已下滑7.1%，金属市场下滑5.7%。受影响企业的月度开票配额很可能在未来数月持续收紧，仅有在下半年可能局部回落。短期内交易降温可能牵制中国下游制造商采购，虽然加工端目前受冲击较小，但当精炼铜价格曾升破100,000元/吨（约14,630美元/吨）后，3月价格跌回该门槛以下的买盘曾快速进场，曾一度提振市场情绪。

China’s tax authorities have stepped up scrutiny of “circular invoicing” transactions, targeting practices seen as inflating economic activity. The crackdown has hit metals trading in Shanghai most visibly, especially in copper, aluminum and silver, where affected firms said invoice allowances were sharply cut and many had to pause operations. Traders fear the squeeze may go beyond filtering suspicious deals and is restraining real spot turnover, especially as they wait for local tax officials to allocate fresh quotas.

Physical trading has visibly weakened. Some firms with copper cargoes arriving next month said they can no longer issue supplier receipts, while others reported no bids or offers for several days. In several houses, spot copper activity has practically dried up. Mysteel Global’s survey of smelters, traders and fabricators put average daily spot copper volume at 24,925 tonnes by Thursday, with declines almost every week this month, down 22% from March’s high of 31,920 tonnes per day. The cited restraint is partly attributed to tighter invoice availability.

Invoices are central to completing a sale in China: they are required for revenue recognition, VAT credit claims, and legal validity, and in commodities they also serve as ownership proof and short-term bank-financing collateral. China has been clamping down on inflated sales and loan-facilitating paper trades that do not reflect real metals demand. The broader crackdown on the “invoice economy” has begun to show results, with invoiced value down 7.1% for wholesale coal and 5.7% for metals in Q1. Monthly quotas for affected firms are expected to remain tight, possibly easing only in the second half. Reduced activity may constrain Chinese manufacturers’ purchases, though fabricators are less affected so far. Demand has cooled after refined copper rose above 100,000 yuan/ton (about 14,630 USD/ton), even though March’s lower-priced phase had triggered strong buying and a temporarily bullish tone.