1974年由Henry Kissinger推动的石油美元安排让中东稳定机制延续了50年：海湾国家以美元定价石油，将盈余主要回流投入美国资产（以US Treasuries为主），换取美国安全保证；但伊朗战争使这个双向循环在两端同时受阻。随著原油高于每桶100美元（约每桶160升，即每立方米约629美元，约每升0.63美元）且多数输入国货币走弱，央行在外汇市场干预时更缺乏美元，迫使其卖出最流动的外汇资产。
在进口端，冲击十分明显：自2月28日对伊朗打击后，外国中央银行连续5周成为美债净卖方，联准会纽约银行持有量较此前粗降约820亿美元，降至2700亿美元的2.7兆美元，接近2012年低点；10年期公债殖利率也未在恐慌中下滑，反而由2月底的3.9%在数周内升至4.4%以上。土耳其、印度、泰国等进口国因美元油价与本币贬值压力，为维稳汇率而动用储备并卖出美债。2020年3月外国官办机构曾在Covid-19恐慌中一次性卖出创纪录的1090亿美元，但透过联准会外汇交换便利工具很快回流；而2022年至2023年的其他危机通常使资金回流美债、殖利率下降。
在出口端，卡关更深：科威特、伊拉克、沙乌地阿拉伯与阿联酋3月至少减产1000万桶/日（约159万立方米/日），霍尔木兹海峡封锁使桶位滞留，替代输油管道仅能承载正常吞吐量约四分之一，且在伊朗无人机与飞弹威胁下风险升高，卡达亦在Ras Laffan设施受创后宣布液化天然气出口不可抗力。这些国家1月仍持有约3000亿美元美债，却同时面临油收缩、空防支出上升与检讨赴美投资承诺。更长期上，外国投资者持有美债的比例已由2010年代初约50%降至约32%，且自1996年至今外国央行持有黄金总量已超过美债，伊朗战争使去美元化趋势更趋可见。
This analysis shows the petrodollar framework is stressed at both ends, not merely from temporary shock. For five decades, Gulf exporters priced oil in dollars and recycled revenue into US Treasuries under the U.S. security compact; the Iran war has interrupted that circular flow. As oil climbed above $100 per barrel (about $629 per cubic meter, $0.63 per liter), importing states with weaker currencies have faced a tighter arithmetic: defend FX markets without enough reserves means selling the most liquid dollar asset, US Treasuries.
On the sovereign-demand side, after the Feb. 28 Iran strike, foreign central banks have been net sellers for five straight weeks, with Federal Reserve Bank of New York Treasury holdings down about $82 billion to $2.7 trillion, the lowest since 2012. The 10-year yield rose from 3.9% at the end of February to above 4.4% within weeks, a contrast to prior crises where yields fell. During March 2020, foreign official holders sold a record $109 billion in panic, but swaps and stabilization restored flows quickly. By contrast, episodes in 2022–2023 usually reinforced flight-to-quality buying and confirmed Treasuries as the default reserve venue.
On the supply side, Gulf states cannot channel revenues as before: Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE cut at least 10 million barrels per day in March, roughly 1.59 million cubic meters/day, while the Strait of Hormuz shutdown stranded exports. Alternative pipelines move only about one-quarter of normal Strait throughput and remain under active Iranian attack; Qatar declared force majeure on LNG exports from Ras Laffan. Gulf sovereigns had about $300 billion in Treasuries in January, yet now face lower export receipts, high defense spending, and potential revisions to commitments in Washington. The longer-term trend also weakened the safe-haven narrative: foreign central bank Treasury holdings fell to around 32% from roughly 50% in the early 2010s, and since 1996 foreign central banks collectively hold more gold than US government bonds.