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Donald Trump在竞选中反复抨击美国过去的外交失误——从Joe Biden在阿富汗混乱撤军到George W Bush入侵伊拉克——并常提及1980年Jimmy Carter面对52名人质营救失误的记忆。但其第二任期已出现明显逆转:改名后的Department of War在过去12个月内的军事动作几乎超过其第一任期整体活动强度。官员称,行政当局正在执行超出常规空袭的快速、强硬任务,1月在Venezuela对Nicolás Maduro“外科式”营救被视为其新模式的代表。

这种转向建立在第一任期经验之上。巴格达美国大使馆附近出现疑似与伊朗相关的抗议后,Trump下令击毙伊朗革命卫队指挥官Qassem Soleimani。伊朗随后主要是提前通报式导弹报复,仅造成基地设施损害且无伤亡,这强化了其对“武力可产生政治收益、且可避免持久战争”的判断。当前伊朗回应更激烈,向美以目标发射数百架无人机和导弹。美国军方通报3名士兵死亡、5名重伤;特朗普亦公开承认美军“可能出现伤亡”。在第一日阿亚图拉Ali Khamenei遇袭身亡后,他将Operation Epic Fury定义为一场长周期行动,并宣布将持续“直到实现中东乃至世界和平为止”,即便最初反复部署到临近伊朗海域的armada后仍继续。

自上任以来,他还命令在Iraq、Syria和Nigeria打击ISIS,并发起拉美地区反毒船行动,在Maduro被捕前建立了数十年来最大的美军海军存在。该做法与其国防战略中宣称不再“分心于干预主义和改朝换代”的口径不一致。其政府甚至把对友国丹麦Greenland的军事行动作为可能选项,并在未获Nobel Peace Prize后向Norway总理表示不再单纯以“和平”为约束。伊朗目标也从保护反政权示威者与核计划限制一再变化,转向更广泛的导弹与地区代理人议题;即使周四有迹象显示通过Oman的间接谈判有进展,周末也显现其已放弃外交路径,且Tom Cotton指出尚未制定任何针对伊朗的“大规模地面部队”作战方案。

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Donald Trump built his campaign image by attacking what he called past US foreign failures—from Joe Biden’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan to George W Bush’s Iraq invasion—and often invoking Jimmy Carter’s 1980 mishandling of 52 hostages. Yet in his second term, the pattern has reversed: the rebranded Department of War has been more active in 12 months than nearly all of his first term. Officials describe interventions beyond routine air campaigns, and the January rescue of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela was presented as the model of a rapid, surgical approach.

This shift builds on first-term precedent. After protests near the US embassy in Baghdad linked to Iran, Trump ordered the killing of Qassem Soleimani. Iran’s response was largely a telegraphed missile strike that caused structural damage but no casualties, reinforcing his belief that force could be politically useful without long wars. In the Iran escalation, Tehran responded more aggressively, firing hundreds of drones and missiles at US and Israeli targets. US military reports said 3 soldiers were killed and 5 seriously wounded. Trump acknowledged that troops could be lost, and after the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on day one he framed Operation Epic Fury as an open-ended campaign, saying strikes would continue until peace in the Middle East and eventually the world—despite nearly hesitating until the last minute over deploying an armada near Iran.

Since taking office, he has also ordered strikes against ISIS in Iraq, Syria and Nigeria and led anti-drug naval operations in Latin America, creating the region’s largest US naval buildup in decades before Maduro’s capture. This clashes with a defence strategy that said the US would no longer be distracted by interventionism or regime change. His administration even floated forceful action against allied Greenland and signaled, after failing to win the Nobel Peace Prize, that “peace” was no longer a binding constraint. Iran policy goals shifted repeatedly—from protesters and the nuclear programme to broader aims on missiles and proxies—and even after reported progress in indirect talks via Oman, Trump moved toward a military-first posture, while Senator Tom Cotton said there was no plan for large-scale US ground force action inside Iran.
2026-03-03 (Tuesday) · d3ce9bf7e7c92ae8c7d8957daa160f027c626cd9