香港住房市场在经历长期下跌后开始反弹，但这一变化对低收入群体并非利好。房价在2021年至2025年间累计下跌超过四分之一，但随后已连续五个月同比上涨。租金恢复更早，目前已超过2019年的峰值。即使是条件最差的分间单位，其租金在截至2025年11月的一年中位数也上涨近6%。与此同时，大约10万户家庭居住在分间单位中，而一些更极端的“笼屋”床位月租约2700港元（约350美元）。

市场复苏与人口流动密切相关。过去六年约30万名内地居民通过“人才签证”来到香港，另有15.5万人通过家庭关系定居。这些新居民抵消了2020年国家安全法实施及疫情限制期间的外流人口。普通话姓名买家在2025年占住房交易近四分之一。与此同时，美国利率下降降低按揭成本，加之金融市场复苏，使香港房地产需求回升。

政策变化也可能推高低端住房成本。新法规要求分间单位至少8平方米，并必须配备独立厕所和窗户。约3.3万个单位需要在四年过渡期内进行大规模改造。香港约30%人口居住在868,700套公共租住房屋中，政府计划未来五年新增189,000套，并提供16,690套过渡住房。然而约70%的分间单位租户只能承受不超过5%的租金上涨，而约40,000名租户无法申请永久公共住房。随着改造成本可能转嫁给租户，一些低收入居民可能被迫在不同廉价住房之间迁移，甚至面临无处居住的风险。

Hong Kong’s housing market has begun to rebound after several years of decline, but the shift is not necessarily positive for low-income residents. Property prices fell by more than a quarter between 2021 and 2025 but have since risen year on year for five consecutive months. Rents recovered earlier and now exceed their 2019 peak. Even among the poorest subdivided flats, median rents increased by nearly 6% in the year to November 2025. Around 100,000 households live in such subdivided units, while some residents occupy even smaller “cage homes” costing about HK$2,700 (around $350) per month.

The recovery is closely linked to population flows and financial conditions. Over the past six years more than 300,000 mainland Chinese have moved to Hong Kong under various “talent” visa schemes, while another 155,000 settled through family ties. These inflows offset departures triggered by the 2020 national-security law and pandemic restrictions. Buyers with Mandarin names accounted for nearly a quarter of home purchases in 2025. At the same time, U.S. interest-rate cuts reduced mortgage costs in Hong Kong’s dollar-pegged system, while a revived financial sector boosted housing demand.

Policy changes may also increase costs in the lowest tier of housing. A new ordinance requires subdivided units to have at least 8 square metres of floor space as well as an independent toilet and window. About 33,000 units must undergo major renovations during a four-year transition period. Roughly 30% of Hong Kong’s population already lives in 868,700 public-rental homes, and the government plans to add 189,000 more over five years while providing 16,690 transitional units. However about 70% of tenants in subdivided flats can afford rent increases of only up to 5%, and around 40,000 tenants are ineligible for permanent public housing. As renovation costs are likely passed on to renters, some low-income residents may be forced to move repeatedly between substandard homes or face homelessness.