OPEC+ 执行委员会指出，中东能源资产受损即使在伊朗战争结束后仍将长期拖累供给；其理事会在周日会议后表示，恢复受损资产到满载生产「既昂贵又耗时」。沙乌地阿拉伯与俄罗斯主导下，OPEC+ 批准5月将产能目标上调约206,000桶/日（约32,800立方公尺/日，原数据：206,000 bpd）。由于波斯湾出口受战争挤压且主要产油国被迫减供，此举偏向象征性，但显示若冲突缓和，集团可能计划重启产量。

在过去五周冲突中，油价曾升至约120美元/桶附近，周六/近日布伦特结算于109美元附近。美国总统Donald Trump 提出升级警告并施压10日最后期限，市场预期霍尔木兹海峡（Strait of Hormuz）通道中断风险上升。Rystad Energy 的Jorge Leon 指出，全球高达五分之一（约20%）的石油流经霍尔木兹；因此关闭航道或运输瓶颈对市场的冲击，往往掩盖OPEC+可宣布的增产幅度。国际能源署（IEA）指出，波斯湾成员已减少约10,000,000桶/日（约1,590,000立方公尺/日），约占全球供给10%。

在霍尔木兹多数航线受限下，沙乌地将部分运输改道红海，阿联酋（UAE）也在Fujairah增加转运；OPEC+监测委员会认为这些调整有助平抑波动，但无法弥补霍尔木兹平时的主运量。伊朗又加强对红海口岸的收费与舰船管理。此前冲突爆发前，OPEC+刚在三月初将4月增产206,000桶/日（约32,800立方公尺/日），但在俄罗斯面临乌克兰持续破坏输出设施的同时，现已正式把约206,000桶/日（约32,800立方公尺/日）视作自2023年停产第二梯次的一半回补，尚有827,000桶/日（约131,000立方公尺/日，原数据：827,000 bpd）可待后续重启；此外22国联盟另有2022年延续的总体产量限制框架。

OPEC+ said that damage to Middle East energy assets will have a prolonged impact on oil supply even after the Iran war ends, and the ministerial monitoring committee said on Sunday that restoring damaged assets to full capacity is costly and time-consuming. Led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, OPEC+ approved a symbolic increase of about 206,000 barrels a day for May, equivalent to about 32,800 m³/day (original number: 206,000 bpd). Exports are being throttled by the war and major producers are cutting output, so the move is partly theoretical, but it signals a possible intent to restart production once hostilities ease.

The conflict has lasted about five weeks and oil prices rose to nearly $120 per barrel; Brent futures later settled near $109 after U.S. President Donald Trump raised escalation threats and a 10-day deadline. As Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy notes, up to one-fifth (about 20%) of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, so insecurity there can dominate market impact more than OPEC+ incremental increases. The IEA said Gulf producers cut about 10,000,000 barrels per day, around 1,590,000 m³/day (roughly 10% of global supply), and traffic through Hormuz remains minimal despite minor signs of pickup.

Before the war, OPEC+ members had been restoring supply halted since 2023; they held output stable for three months then raised April output by 206,000 bpd on March 1. In interviews, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the market is clearly unbalanced and that transport-route closures increase volatility. With Russia also hit by Ukraine-related infrastructure attacks and Baltic export-terminal losses, the broader context is doubly tight. The newly approved 206,000 bpd adds back about half of a second shut-in tranche, leaving about 827,000 bpd unfilled, i.e., about 131,000 m³/day (original number: 827,000 bpd), while a wider 22-member OPEC+ framework still keeps additional output brakes dating from 2022.