Donald Trump 最近清除了法律障碍，使雇主可允许美国员工把 401(k) 退休资产配置到较高风险但可能高报酬的资产，如 private credit、private equity、与 real estate funds，理由是既然大型机构与高净值者已在做，普通美国人也应该可以做。我认为现在并非正确时机。我的观点是，政策正在将退休者推向替代性投资，但此刻刚好接近 leveraged lending（杠杆贷款）循环末端，市场条件很可能突然恶化。
前五十年内，Gary Gensler 指出 leveraged-lending 的循环通常长达约 15–20 年，且每一轮都在新的债务融资模式出现时出现转折点。第一波始于 1970 年代中后期，由 Henry Kravis、George Roberts、Thomas Lee、Teddy Forstmann 等人主导 junk bond（垃圾债券）时代；其破局在 1990 年左右发生，并延续到 1990–91 衰退与1990年代中期储贷危机。第二波转向平台化的机构，例如 Blackstone 与 Carlyle，接著是 broadly syndicated loans 与 collateralised loan obligations（CLO）扩张，约历经两个十年后在 2008 年全球金融危机中终结。第三波是 2008 年金融危机后兴起的 private credit，现由 pension funds、college endowments、family offices、保险公司与高净值个人持有；现已接近二十年，同时伴随科技泡沫与中东战争。
警讯已经可见：private leveraged loans 在二级市场常低于面值交易，资金方正将 ageing assets（老化资产）重组打包并抛售，Jamie Dimon 与 Jerome Powell 等人长期提醒 private credit 对金融体系与实体经济的外溢风险。Donald Trump 企图打开约 $10tn（约10万亿美元）规模的 401(k) 市场，可能进一步推高此轮繁荣。当前 private credit 约为 $2tn（约2兆美元），按规模占美国经济的比例已超过此前 junk bond 崩溃时稍高于 3% 的水平一倍以上，等于接近六分之一千分之一? no not right sorry, more than double that share of GDP; at late stage, average retirees are at risk of becoming the vulnerable “slow deer.”
Donald Trump has removed legal obstacles that allow workers’ 401(k) assets to move into riskier, potentially higher-yield options such as private credit, private equity, and real-estate funds, arguing that if large institutions and wealthy investors can use them, average Americans should too. I think this is poorly timed. Policy is now steering retirees toward alternative investments just as leveraged-lending conditions may deteriorate quickly at the late stage of the cycle.
Gary Gensler notes that over the last five decades, leveraged-lending cycles have usually lasted about 15 to 20 years and each has shifted when a new debt-financing model appeared. The first wave, in the late 1970s, was the junk-bond era led by Henry Kravis, George Roberts, Thomas Lee, and Teddy Forstmann; it unraveled around 1990 and carried through the 1990–91 recession and mid-1990s S&L stress. The second wave moved to platform-based firms such as Blackstone and Carlyle, then expanded with broadly syndicated loans and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), ending about two decades later in the 2008 global financial crisis. The current third wave is private credit after the crisis, now held by pension funds, endowments, family offices, insurers, and high-net-worth individuals, and it is also near the two-decade mark while a tech bubble and a Middle East war persist.
Several warning signs already point to stress: private leveraged loans are frequently trading below par, managers are repackaging aging assets and disposing of them in a growing secondary market, and repeated alerts from Jamie Dimon and Jerome Powell suggest spillovers to the broader financial system and real economy. Trump’s plan to open roughly $10tn (about 10 trillion USD) in 401(k) assets could accelerate this late-cycle expansion. Private credit is now about $2tn (about 2 trillion USD), already more than double its junk-bond predecessor’s share of the U.S. economy, which was slightly above 3% when that market collapsed, so average retirees risk becoming the vulnerable “slow deer.”