晶片产业最近成为市场主轴：SOX今年已上涨48%，而台湾、南韩与日本股市在伊朗冲突可能的能源冲击下仍创下历史新高。Roundhill Memory ETF于4月2日上市，持仓中SK Hynix、Samsung Electronics及Micron占约65%，已吸引14亿美元净流入。自ChatGPT于2022年底推出后，SOX已大多以高于S&P 500的估值交易，与过去需求由消费电子驱动的周期不同。
随著AI从训练大型语言模型转向应用，市场如今预期更广泛的半导体景气循环。这一轮中，最终客户变成超大规模电脑云端供应商与云服务商，承诺更稳定且偏长期，这对先前由终端消费电子主导的循环形成对比。近期财报增强了这一看法：SOX中有6家公布第一季财报，全部带来愉快惊喜；Hynix预估未来三年需求过剩，台积电（TSMC）也上修全年展望。
然而这一论点可能已被过度推进。市场似乎把所有SOX成员都视为同样受惠者，只有Qualcomm目前仍是年度亏损者。资料显示CPU需求预计由目前每4个GPU对1个CPU转向一比一，Arm预测资料中心CPU市场将由去年的260亿美元增至2030年的600亿美元。Intel在最近一次财报后上涨24%；以市场预期估值计算，Intel为2027年每股盈余54倍，Arm为109倍；同时竞争也在加剧，Nvidia推出Vera CPU、Arm转向自制晶片，而AMD仍具实力。因此这波上涨更像是高贝塔曝险和对TACO交易的追逐，而非个股选股能力。
The chip sector has led markets recently: the SOX is up 48% this year, and the stock exchanges in Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan are at record highs despite possible energy shocks from the Iran conflict. The Roundhill Memory ETF launched on April 2, with SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron about 65% of the portfolio, and it has already attracted $1.4 billion in net inflows. Since ChatGPT’s arrival in late 2022, SOX has largely traded at a premium valuation versus the S&P 500, unlike prior cycles that were driven mainly by consumer-electronics demand.
As AI has moved from training large-language models to applications, investors are now pricing in a broader semiconductor supercycle. In this cycle, the ultimate customers are hyperscalers and cloud service providers, whose commitments may be more stable and longer-term than consumer demand. Recent earnings supported this view: all six SOX companies reporting first-quarter results delivered pleasant surprises; SK Hynix forecast excess demand for three years, and TSMC raised its full-year outlook. (Key numbers: 6)
But the thesis may already be running too far. The market appears to treat all SOX names as winners, with only Qualcomm still in the red this year. Demand data suggest CPUs for data centers may shift from one CPU per four GPUs to one-to-one, and Arm estimates the CPU market rising from $26 billion last year to $60 billion by 2030. Intel rose 24% after its latest earnings; on forward estimates Intel trades around 54 times 2027 earnings and Arm at 109 times, while competition is heating up as Nvidia launched Vera CPU, Arm moved into in-house chip production, and AMD remains strong. The rally, therefore, looks more like a high-beta positioning and a TACO-type trade than broad stock-picking skill.