澳大利亚储备银行在周二将政策利率上调25个基点至3.85%，在全球普遍转向降息的背景下构成反向信号。此举关键不在意外性（多数经济学家已预期），而在于兑现其“逐次会议、依数据决定”的立场；行长在2023年上任后一直反感提前指引。加息同时暴露对2025年三次降息的再评价风险：若当前需要收紧，先前对通胀与经济的判断就更易遭到质疑。
外部环境的偏差强化了重新收紧的合理性：尽管美国在四月对贸易伙伴加征关税引发悲观预期，全球经济未出现崩塌式下行；未见全球性衰退，贸易仍在扩张，部分经济体前景反而改善。通胀未失控但需要更高警惕，各国央行的立场也在向鹰派侧倾：新西兰通胀出现不利跃升且官员未压制年内加息预期，新加坡维持不变但对物价表态强硬，印度即将到来的降息可能成为最后一次，英国在评估何时结束宽松，欧洲央行认为降息周期大概率结束但尚未急于反转。澳大利亚可能从跟随者转为先行者。
国内数据与预测提供了数值支撑：官方预测通胀、增长与就业在今年回升，物价涨幅将一段时间高于2%—3%目标区间，且在明年年底前难以回到区间中点约2.5%。劳动力市场偏紧：失业率在12月意外降至4.1%，就业增量超过预测的两倍。通胀路径先降后黏：2022年峰值接近7%，去年第二季度降至约2.7%并支撑2025年三次降息，但随后韧性上升，第四季度同比3.4%使再度加息几乎定案。单次加息未必显著拖累增长，却更像对“中性利率附近”设定的校准；由于澳大利亚多数按揭随政策利率浮动，传导更快、痛感更强，这一转向对海外央行构成直接警示。
On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, a contrarian signal as much of the world tilts toward rate cuts. The key was not surprise (most economists expected it) but follow-through on a “meeting by meeting, data-dependent” stance; since taking office in 2023, the governor has resisted giving forward guidance. The hike also re-opens scrutiny of the three rate cuts in 2025: if policy needs tightening now, earlier judgments on inflation and growth look more vulnerable to criticism.
External conditions strengthened the case to tighten again: despite bleak expectations after the US imposed tariffs on trading partners in April, the global economy did not collapse. There has been no global recession, trade has kept expanding, and some countries’ outlooks have improved. Inflation is not out of control but demands more vigilance, and central banks are sounding more hawkish: New Zealand saw an unfavorable inflation jump with officials not pushing back on hike expectations this year, Singapore held steady but struck a tough tone on prices, India’s coming cut may be the last, the UK is weighing when to end easing, and the ECB sees its cut cycle as likely finished without rushing to reverse. Australia may be shifting from follower to early mover.
Domestic data and forecasts provide the numerical backbone: officials expect inflation, growth, and employment to pick up this year, with price gains staying above the 2%–3% target band for some time and unlikely to return to the midpoint near 2.5% before the end of next year. The labor market is tight, with unemployment unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% in December and job growth more than double forecasts. Inflation fell from a peak near 7% in 2022 to about 2.7% in last year’s second quarter (supporting three 2025 cuts), then proved sticky, with fourth-quarter inflation at 3.4% year-on-year making another hike close to inevitable. A single hike may not crush growth, but it looks like a recalibration around “neutral,” and because many Australian mortgages float with the policy rate, transmission is faster and more painful—an immediate warning for overseas central banks.