终端利率与中性利率之间的差距正在缩小，表明金融状况正变得更加偏向紧缩。联准会新任主席凯文·沃什主席昨天的首次会议展现了出人意料的鹰派立场。
尽管市场超额流动性急剧下降且金融环境显著收紧，散户流入股市的资金却大幅跳升，股票型ETF资金流入量接近历史高位。
The stock market's supports are falling away as liquidity tightens and rates become increasingly restrictive. Excess liquidity is now negative and falling for the first time since 2021, which typically presages a flatter yield curve.
The gap between the terminal rate and the neutral rate is closing, indicating that conditions are getting more restrictive. Kevin Warsh presided over a surprisingly hawkish Federal Reserve meeting, his first as chair.
Despite the decline in market liquidity and the tightening of financial conditions, retail inflows to stocks have jumped higher, with equity ETF inflows rising to near-record levels.