12月12日，库皮扬斯克周边态势图从红变蓝：乌军反击收复这座铁路重镇的大部分地区，约200名俄军守军仍被孤立；泽连斯基在距敌军阵地不足1公里处自拍视频。该解围行动最早始于8月24日，并在9月21日升级为全面反冲击；10—11月乌军切断北部补给线，而俄军试图通过废弃管道增援却沦为“每天一个排”的死亡陷阱——约每月1,000人。
尽管库皮扬斯克是罕见亮点，乌军防线的后撤速度已为开战以来最快，俄军第5集团军在胡利艾波莱附近“领先作战计划数周”。在波克罗夫斯克与米尔诺赫拉德方向经历22个月防御后，俄军集结16万人；米尔诺赫拉德（战前人口5万）在12月上旬基本被合围、到12月中旬仍有数百名乌军被困，而到12月中旬俄军似乎已控制西韦尔斯克大部并继续向外推进。
俄军兵力扩张在损失之下仍在继续：2025年上半年平均每月新增8,000—9,000人，在乌境内兵力约71万人，另有约5万人作战预备队，且征募超额完成目标20—30%。俄方更有资金的无人机部队正在抬升后方损失——无人机操作员伤亡可高于步兵伤亡——乌方估计俄军日伤亡超过1,000人，使其得以再维持数月高压并可能将优势保持到2月。
On Dec 12 maps around Kupiansk flipped from red to blue as a Ukrainian counterattack retook most of the railway town, leaving about 200 Russian defenders isolated, and Zelensky filmed himself barely 1 km from enemy positions. The relief effort began as early as Aug 24, escalated into a full countercharge on Sept 21, and by Oct–Nov Ukrainian forces cut northern supply routes while a pipeline reinforcement attempt became a “platoon a day” death trap—roughly 1,000 men a month.
While Kupiansk is a rare bright spot, Ukrainian lines are retreating faster than at any time since the war began, and Russia’s 5th Army is “several weeks” ahead of plan near Huliaipole. Around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad after a 22-month defence, Russia has massed 160,000 troops; Myrnohrad (prewar population 50,000) was effectively encircled by early December with several hundred Ukrainians trapped mid-December, and by mid-December Russia appeared to control most of Siversk and push beyond it.
Russian manpower continues to scale despite losses, averaging 8,000–9,000 new soldiers per month in the first half of 2025 and reaching roughly 710,000 troops in Ukraine plus about 50,000 in operational reserve, while recruitment runs 20–30% above targets. Russia’s better-funded drone units are raising rear-area losses—drone-operator casualties can exceed infantry losses—and Ukraine estimates Russia suffers more than 1,000 casualties a day, allowing a pressure campaign for several more months and likely dominance until February.
Source: Ukraine scrabbles for handholds against Russia’s massive assault
Subtitle: A counter-attack in Kupiansk is promising, but the overall outlook is not
Dateline: 12月 18, 2025 07:37 上午 | Kyiv