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在四月中旬启动的美国海军封锁已迫使伊朗改道运输,来自中国西安前往德黑兰的铁路班次明显增加。据行业人士,冲突前每周约有1列,如今自4月13日后升为每3至4天1列。该路线标准 40 英尺货柜报价已升到约7,000美元,约高出正常水平40%。每列车可载约50个此类货柜,但一艘远洋货柜船可运载上千个,因此铁路容量仍只能部分替代海运。到5月,排程已全部预订,另计划6月再增加能力。

这条经过哈萨克斯坦与土库曼斯坦的航线主要将货物运入伊朗——包括汽车零件、发电机与电子产品——而德黑兰未来可能再以铁路输出石化产品与燃料。由于北京几乎买下伊朗全部石油且出口受限,贸易仍以单向为主,无法替代海运损失。它是德黑兰走廊策略的一环,亦涵盖10月开通的225公里(140英里)Khaf–Herat柴油铁路线、通往Hairatan的直接货运,以及通往俄罗斯的高成本南北专案。Kambiz Etemadi表示,最多可有40%的常规海运货量改道陆运。

封锁同时阻断了大部分石油出口和重要粮食进口;里亚尔已跌至历史低点,通胀压力加剧,且在急速汇率崩盘后引发过抗议。伊朗正透过从土耳其(尤其是食品和向日葵油)增加货运,以及与巴基斯坦商谈提高铁路运量,来多元化运输线路。中国在区域的投入很大,两千七百亿美元(2700亿)投资与建设逾20年,且在Trump与Xi Jinping会前呼吁恢复霍尔木兹海峡航道。伊朗官员包括总统Masoud Pezeshkian已警告,囤积与牟取暴利会加剧物资短缺并引发社会动荡。

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A U.S. naval blockade of Iran’s ports began in mid-April, forcing Tehran to reroute trade, and rail traffic from Xi’an to Tehran has increased sharply. According to people in the industry, it rose from about one train per week before the conflict to one every three to four days after 13 April. Freight quotes for a standard 40-foot container on the route have risen to around $7,000, roughly 40% above normal. Each train carries about 50 containers, but a single ocean container vessel can carry thousands, so rail capacity is only a partial substitute. By May, schedules were fully booked, and extra capacity was already planned for June.

The route through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan mainly carries imports into Iran—such as automotive parts, generators, and electronics—while Tehran is reportedly considering future rail exports of petrochemicals and fuel. Because Beijing buys almost all of Iran’s oil and exports are constrained, trade is still largely one-way and does not compensate for maritime losses. The corridor remains one element in Tehran’s wider logistics strategy, including the 225-kilometre (140-mile) Khaf–Herat diesel line opened in October, direct freight links to Hairatan, and a costly north–south project toward Russia. Kambiz Etemadi has said that up to 40% of ordinary sea-borne trade can be shifted to land routes.

The blockade also blocks most oil exports and essential grain imports, while the rial has fallen to record lows, inflation pressure has worsened, and social unrest followed a sharp currency collapse. Iran is diversifying routes through higher freight volumes from Turkey—especially food and sunflower oil—and through talks with Pakistan to raise rail throughput. China’s regional exposure is large, with about $270 billion in investments and construction over more than two decades, and Beijing has called for reopening the Strait of Hormuz ahead of the Trump–Xi summit. Iranian officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian have warned that hoarding and profiteering could deepen shortages and trigger instability. (Key numbers: 2700, 20)
2026-05-10 (Sunday) · 5f68f0670864e9e4b0a4b206251816b2aa4e637c