在脱欧公投过去近十年后，脱欧对英国经济的拖累被量化为英国GDP下降4%到8%的估计区间，并伴随新的货物出口壁垒导致更高的贸易摩擦。民调被描述为显示多数英国人如今认为脱欧是错误并更偏好与欧盟而非与美国更紧密的关系，同时移民并未下降。

英国已重新加入促进科研合作的“地平线”计划，并正在回归“伊拉斯谟”项目；5月的“重置”使食品安全与动物健康规则重新对齐，以疏通农产品贸易并缓解北爱尔兰与大不列颠之间的壁垒。更广泛的青年计划、更便利的跨境旅行以及碳调节机制与电力交易的联动已被提出，但谈判进展缓慢且强硬红线仍在。

关税同盟会消除原产地证明要求，但无法解决因监管分歧造成的贸易障碍，并可能迫使撤销与美国、澳大利亚和东亚的贸易协议，因此焦点转向对接单一市场的部分对齐，其消费者规模接近5亿。被引用的先例包括列支敦士登与瑞士的移民限制以及2019年提出的“仅货物”单一市场参与，暗示以部分市场准入交换部分人员自由流动。

Nearly a decade after the leave vote, Brexit’s economic drag is framed as an estimated 4% to 8% hit to UK GDP, alongside higher export frictions from new goods barriers. Polling is described as showing a majority now calling Brexit a mistake and preferring closer EU ties over US ties, while immigration did not fall.

The UK has rejoined Horizon and is returning to Erasmus; a May “reset” realigns food-safety and animal-health rules to unblock farm-goods trade and ease Northern Ireland–Great Britain barriers. Plans for a broader youth scheme, easier cross-border travel, and linked carbon-adjustment and electricity trading exist, but negotiations are slow and hard red lines persist.

A customs union would remove origin-proof requirements but would not fix regulatory divergence, and it could force unwinding trade deals with America, Australia and East Asia, so attention shifts to partial single-market alignment serving nearly 500m consumers. Precedents cited include Liechtenstein and Switzerland’s migration limits and a 2019 proposal for goods-only single-market participation, suggesting partial market access traded for partial free movement.

Source: Britain and the EU should be bolder in getting closer

Subtitle: How post-Brexit Britain should approach relations with its nearest and biggest market

Dateline: 12月 31, 2025 03:03 上午