彭博汇整的共识预估显示，追踪美元的指数到2026年底约再跌3%；摩根士丹利则预期2026年上半年下跌5%。2025年美元对所有主要货币普遍走弱，使彭博美元即期指数全年跌近8%，为2017年以来最深的年度跌幅；但机构认为2026年的下行将更温和且不一定全面。
利率路径上，交易员定价2026年还有两次各25个基点（合计50个基点）的降息；联准会近期已降息25个基点，并仍点阵图暗示明年再降一次。美元在会后下滑并迈向连3周下跌，创自8月以来最长连败；市场对美元的部位也在逾2个月后首次转为偏空。美元走弱可能推升进口成本、抬高海外获利折算、提振出口，并延续新兴市场行情；新兴市场套息交易回报达2009年以来最高，部分机构点名巴西里拉、韩元与人民币等具续涨空间，而反向看法则押注AI带动的美国成长吸引资金使美元在2026年回升。
Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street banks expect the US dollar to resume weakening in 2026 as the Federal Reserve keeps cutting rates while other major central banks hold steady or move closer to hikes. The dollar has been relatively stable over the past six months after a first-half 2025 slump of 10.8%, the largest such drop since the early 1970s.
Bloomberg-compiled consensus forecasts point to about a 3% decline in a broad dollar index by end-2026, while Morgan Stanley projects a 5% drop in the first half of 2026. In 2025 the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down nearly 8%, its deepest annual fall since 2017, but strategists see 2026 weakness as more muted and less universal.
Markets are pricing two more quarter-point Fed cuts next year (50 bps total); the Fed has already cut by 25 bps and still penciled in one additional quarter-point move. After the meeting the dollar index slid and is heading for a third straight weekly decline, the longest losing streak since August, and traders turned bearish for the first time in over two months. A softer dollar could lift import costs, boost overseas profit translation and exports, and support emerging markets: EM carry trades have delivered their biggest returns since 2009, with some banks flagging currencies such as the Brazilian real, South Korean won and Chinese yuan—while contrarians argue AI-driven US growth could pull flows back and revive the dollar cycle in 2026.
