古巴约900万的减少人口面临着严重的日常食品、电力和水资源短缺，而唐纳德·特朗普针对俄罗斯和委内瑞拉石油供应的“极限施压”制裁使这一状况雪上加霜。在拥有100多万古巴裔美国人的佛罗里达州，在国务卿马尔科·卢比奥等人物的领导下，其政治影响力依然强大。

在这些苦难中，于6月3日满95岁的劳尔·卡斯特罗因在1996年授权击落两架民用飞机而被美国起诉。虽然一些流亡者在六个十年后寄希望于波兰或捷克斯洛伐克式的政权更迭，但其他人担心会出现类似于委内瑞拉的过渡，即一个独裁者被另一个独裁者取代。

尽管存在历史性的僵局，唐纳德·特朗普的交易型手段可能会绕过曾阻碍前几任总统的国会禁运限制。他的务实作风——包括驱逐数千名古巴人同时允许部分货物运输——可能会在过去12届政府都失败的地方成功终结卡斯特罗政权。

Cuba's dwindling population of about 9 million faces severe daily shortages of food, power, and water, compounded by Donald Trump's "maximum pressure" sanctions that target Russian and Venezuelan oil supplies. In Florida, home to over 1 million Cuban-Americans, political influence remains strong under figures like Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Amidst these hardships, Raúl Castro, who turned 95 on June 3rd, has been indicted by the United States for authorizing the shooting down of two civilian aircraft in 1996. While some exiles hope for a Polish or Czechoslovakian-style regime change after six decades, others fear a transition similar to Venezuela's, where one autocrat was replaced by another.

Despite the historical stalemate, Donald Trump's transactional approach could bypass congressional embargo restrictions that thwarted past presidents. His pragmatism, which includes deporting thousands of Cubans while allowing some cargo shipments, might succeed in ending the Castro regime where twelve previous administrations failed.

Source: Donald Trump could be the man to save Cuba

Subtitle: Ideological certainties have hurt Cubans for 70 years. Time to give cynicism a chance

Dateline: June 4th 2026