中国在今年前11个月的全球贸易顺差已达1.07兆美元，创下超过1兆美元的历史纪录，引发美欧对现行贸易规则失灵的警觉。顺差在疫情后出口反弹、制造业升级与自2022年中以来的通缩环境支持下扩大，同时国内高储蓄与相对疲弱的投资与消费造成内需不足，迫使产能更多依赖海外市场消化。

欧洲正取代美国成为下一个主要摩擦战场，特别是电动车领域。2024年中国生产1,240万辆电动车，占全球产量逾七成，而欧洲仅约280万辆、北美约180万辆，导致欧盟对中贸易逆差预计超过4,000亿欧元（约4,640亿美元），加剧当地对产能过剩、去工业化与就业流失的忧虑。

中国官方仍依赖出口支撑经济成长，力求2025年增长约5%，并可能在2026年设定类似目标。北京与专家多认为「产能过剩」一词被误用，强调中国正在以低成本向发展中国家输出新能源等技术，同时透过减少补贴、提升效率、增加自欧洲进口与人民币升值等选项，寻求在维持竞争力与缓和贸易紧张之间取得平衡。

China’s global trade surplus has already reached 1.07 trillion dollars in the first eleven months of the year, breaking the one trillion dollar level and alarming major partners. The record surplus is driven by post pandemic export recovery, industrial upgrading, and domestic deflation since mid 2022, while exceptionally high household savings and weak investment and consumption leave domestic demand too soft to absorb output.

Europe is emerging as the main new front in trade frictions, especially over electric vehicles. In 2024 China produced 12.4 million EVs, more than 70 percent of global output, compared with about 2.8 million in Europe and 1.8 million in North America. The EU’s trade deficit with China is expected to exceed 400 billion euros, roughly 464 billion dollars, fueling fears of deindustrialization, slower growth, and job losses.

Beijing still relies on exports to help meet its growth target of around 5 percent for 2025 and is expected to set a similar goal for 2026. Chinese officials and experts argue that overcapacity is overstated because cheap renewables and technologies benefit developing countries, while policy is shifting toward consolidation, fewer subsidies, and higher efficiency, alongside options such as increasing imports from Europe or allowing yuan appreciation to ease tensions without sacrificing competitiveness.