美国总统 Donald Trump 再次暗示，他可能会直接与台湾总统赖清德通话，此举或将使近期已趋稳定的美中关系再度不安。当被问及他是否打算在周三致电赖清德时，Trump 说：「嗯，我会跟他说话。我跟每个人都会说话。」但没有给出时间表。这种直接通话将挑战美国自1979年以来长期奉行、对台湾审慎管理的模糊政策；当年华盛顿承认北京并与台北断绝正式关系，而这一通话也将发生在 Trump 与中国领导人 Xi Jinping 峰会仅数日之后。
这一可能性已经引来北京与台北的强烈反应。中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆敦促美方维护峰会共识，并「以更审慎的态度处理台湾问题」，同时表示中国反对美方与台湾进行官方往来以及美国对台军售的立场「一贯、明确、坚定」。相较之下，台北表示，赖清德欢迎就台湾海峡的和平与稳定进行讨论。一名台湾官员称，实际通话的可能性很低，并暗示 Trump 可能把这个想法当作对北京的谈判筹码。Trump 的言论延续了他2016年与时任总统蔡英文的通话，当时引发中国正式抗议；而此番表态又正值其政府考虑向台湾出售价值14 billion美元的武器。
之所以牵动重大，因为台湾仍是美中关系中最具风险的议题之一。Xi 在会面中警告 Trump，若双方未能妥善处理台湾问题，冲突可能随之而来；而 Trump 此后将台湾称为「一个问题」，同时警告不要采取任何走向独立的举动。待定的14 billion美元军售案是最直接的摩擦来源：若取消，可能在华盛顿引发两党反弹；若批准，则会激怒北京。更广泛而言，任何 Trump-Lai 接触或武器转移都将考验战略模糊、1982年雷根时代的「6 assurances」，以及美国不就对台军售咨询中国、也不修改《台湾关系法》的承诺；该法要求向台湾提供防御性武器支援。
US President Donald Trump has again signaled that he may speak directly with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, a move that could unsettle recently stabilized US-China ties. When asked on Wednesday whether he planned to call Lai, Trump said, “Well, I’ll speak to him. I speak to everybody,” without giving a timeline. A direct call would challenge the long-standing US practice of carefully managed ambiguity on Taiwan that has existed since 1979, when Washington recognized Beijing and cut formal ties with Taipei, and it would come only days after Trump’s summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
The prospect has already drawn sharp reactions from both Beijing and Taipei. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun urged the US to uphold the summit understandings and “handle the Taiwan question with extra prudence,” while saying China’s opposition to US official exchanges with Taiwan and US arms sales remains “consistent, clear and firm.” Taipei, by contrast, said Lai welcomes discussion of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. A Taiwanese official said the odds of an actual call are slim and suggested Trump may be using the idea as bargaining leverage with Beijing. Trump’s remarks follow his 2016 call with then-President Tsai Ing-wen, which triggered a formal protest from China, and come amid his administration’s consideration of a $14 billion weapons sale to Taiwan.
The stakes are high because Taiwan remains one of the most volatile issues in US-China relations. Xi warned Trump in their meeting that conflict could follow if the two sides failed to handle Taiwan properly, and Trump has since described Taiwan as “a problem” while warning against any move toward independence. The pending $14 billion arms package is the most immediate source of friction: canceling it could trigger bipartisan backlash in Washington, while approving it would anger Beijing. More broadly, any Trump-Lai contact or arms transfer would test strategic ambiguity, the Reagan-era “6 assurances” from 1982, and the US pledge not to consult China on Taiwan arms sales or revise the Taiwan Relations Act, which requires defensive arms support for the island.