这场危机的核心量化特征是约五分之一的全球石油流动陷入瘫痪，而白宫的缓冲措施规模明显不足。美国汽油价格自打击开始以来每加仑上涨近 1 美元；AAA 全国调查显示无铅汽油上涨逾 80 美分。Brent crude 触及每桶 119 美元，欧洲天然气价格最高上涨 35%。作为应对，美国与盟友协调释放 4 亿桶储备油，其中美国计划在 120 天内释放 1.72 亿桶，但这总量也只相当于战前 Hormuz Strait 约 20 天的通行供应量。

政策与基础设施数据表明，供给缺口难以被快速填补。特朗普政府一方面寻求至少 2000 亿美元战争资金，另一方面又试图通过 60 天 Jones Act 豁免、战略石油储备释放、以及临时放松受制裁石油来稳定市场，但市场反应仅是短暂缓解。替代管道只能承载该地区出口的一小部分，且同样面临被袭击风险。加州 Sable Offshore 即使成功重启，也只能新增每日 4.5 万至 5.5 万桶产量，相较 Hormuz 受阻的全球规模几乎可以忽略。

时间维度进一步恶化了冲击。内部估计显示，若冲突再持续 3 至 4 周，伊朗石油出口将大幅下降；即使战争很快结束，油井重启也需数周，而战损设施修复可能要数月甚至数年。政治时间表同样紧迫：美国选民距再次投票已不足 8 个月。整体趋势是，能源冲击的持续时间远长于临时政策工具的有效窗口，显示这更像一场历史级供应中断，而非短暂价格波动。

The crisis is defined by one central number: roughly one-fifth of global oil flows remain paralyzed, while the White House’s mitigation tools are materially smaller than the shock. US gasoline prices have risen by nearly $1 a gallon since the strikes began; AAA’s national survey shows unleaded up more than 80 cents. Brent crude touched $119 a barrel, and European natural gas prices jumped by as much as 35%. In response, the US and allies coordinated a 400 million-barrel reserve release, including 172 million barrels from the US over 120 days, but that total equals only about 20 days of prewar supply that moved through the Strait of Hormuz.

Policy and infrastructure data show the supply gap cannot be closed quickly. The Trump administration is seeking at least $200 billion for the war while also trying to calm markets through a 60-day Jones Act waiver, SPR releases, and temporary easing for sanctioned oil, yet markets have treated these steps as only brief relief. Alternative pipelines can carry only a fraction of regional exports and are also vulnerable to attack. Even a successful restart of California’s Sable Offshore would add just 45,000 to 55,000 barrels a day, a negligible volume relative to the scale of disrupted Hormuz flows.

Time dynamics worsen the shock. Internal estimates suggest that if the conflict persists another three to four weeks, Iranian oil exports will fall sharply; even if war ends soon, well restarts require weeks, while damaged facilities may need months or years. The political clock is also tight: US voters are less than eight months from returning to the ballot box. The overall trend is that the duration of the energy shock is likely to exceed the useful life of the emergency policy tools, making this look less like a temporary price spike and more like a historic supply disruption.