2025年的关键波动先由AI「泡沫」疑虑点燃：1月26日Marc Andreessen称DeepSeek是「AI的史普尼克时刻」，1月27日美股开盘后，Nvidia单日暴跌17%，市值蒸发近6000亿美元，半导体指数出现自2020年3月以来最差一日；但情绪很快反转，Nasdaq 100在一个月内重回新高，全年仍上涨21%，Nvidia全年上涨40%。

贸易战把剧烈波动推到高峰：4月2日川普展示惩罚性关税税率引发全球抛售，Argent持股最大的Amazon当日下挫近10%，S&P 500一度逼近熊市边缘；4月9日13:18川普宣布多项关税暂停90天后，S&P 500在不到10分钟内飙升7%，并以9.5%收盘，创下自2008年10月以来最大单日涨幅，期间美国公债也出现「避险失灵」式下跌。

地缘与加密资产提供了反例与延伸：6月21日美国轰炸伊朗核设施后，S&P 500在周一与周二各上涨约1%，周末再创新高；10月10日因额外100%关税威胁，Bitcoin先前曾突破12.5万美元后急挫，约一小时内清算超过30亿美元的杠杆部位，且Bitcoin正走向自2022年崩跌以来首个年度下跌；11月21日股市回升、12月10日Fed延续宽松预期，华尔街多数人押注S&P 500在2026年续涨、连胜第4年，将是近20年来最长。

2025’s defining swings began with AI-bubble fear: on Jan. 26 Marc Andreessen called DeepSeek “AI’s Sputnik moment,” and on Jan. 27 Nvidia sank 17%, wiping nearly $600 billion in value as semiconductors logged their worst day since March 2020. The reversal was fast: the Nasdaq 100 was back at a record within a month, finished 2025 up 21%, and Nvidia ended the year up 40%.

Trade policy then drove the year’s sharpest whipsaws: on Apr. 2 Trump unveiled punitive tariff rates, sparking a global selloff in which Amazon (Argent’s largest holding) fell nearly 10% and the S&P 500 lurched to the cusp of a bear market. At 1:18 p.m. on Apr. 9, a 90-day tariff pause flipped panic to euphoria: the S&P 500 jumped 7% in under 10 minutes and closed up 9.5%, its biggest one-day gain since Oct. 2008, even as Treasuries also slid.

Geopolitics and crypto added stress—and a counterexample: after the U.S. bombed Iran’s nuclear sites on June 21, the S&P 500 rose about 1% on Monday and again on Tuesday, ending that week at another record high. On Oct. 10, a fresh 100% tariff threat hit risk assets; Bitcoin, recently above $125,000, dropped as over $3 billion of leveraged positions were liquidated in about an hour, and it’s tracking toward its first annual decline since the 2022 crash. By Nov. 21 stocks rebounded, and after the Fed’s Dec. 10 move, strategists leaned bullish into 2026, expecting a fourth straight S&P 500 advance—the longest run in nearly two decades.