摩根士丹利的研究显示，人工智能在英国带来的净就业冲击在主要经济体中最为严重。过去12个月，英国企业因AI出现8%的净岗位流失，是国际平均水平的两倍，在德国、美国、日本和澳大利亚样本中居首。调查涵盖至少使用AI一年的企业，涉及五个高暴露行业。尽管AI投资已显著提升企业效率，其就业调整在英国集中体现为裁员而非再招聘。

生产率数据与就业形成鲜明对比。英国企业平均报告AI带来11.5%的生产率提升，近一半企业的增幅更高，与美国企业几乎持平。然而，美国企业在获得类似效率收益的同时，实现了净增聘，而英国企业则显著减少用工。报告显示，英国雇主因AI削减或不再补招约四分之一岗位，与其他国家相近，但明显更不愿因技术进步扩大招聘。

宏观与结构性数据表明冲击正在加速。自2022年以来，英国整体职位空缺下降超过三分之一，约50万个岗位，其中约五分之一来自最易受AI影响的行业。与AI相关岗位空缺下降37%，高于其他岗位26%的降幅。青年失业率升至13.7%，为近五年最高。尽管官方预计未来十年AI或将把生产率增速提高多达0.8个百分点，但短期内，其对英国劳动力市场的负面影响已清晰显现。

Morgan Stanley research shows that artificial intelligence is delivering the heaviest net employment shock in the UK among major economies. Over the past 12 months, British companies reported 8% net job losses due to AI, double the international average and the highest among firms in Germany, the US, Japan, and Australia. The survey covered companies using AI for at least a year across five highly exposed industries. While AI investments are already boosting efficiency, workforce adjustment in the UK has skewed strongly toward cuts rather than hiring.

Productivity gains contrast sharply with employment outcomes. UK firms reported an average 11.5% productivity increase from AI, with nearly half seeing larger gains, broadly matching US results. However, US companies paired similar efficiency improvements with net job creation, whereas UK firms reduced headcount. The report found UK employers cut or did not backfill around a quarter of roles because of AI, similar to peers, but were far less likely to expand hiring in response to the technology.

Macro and structural indicators suggest the impact is intensifying. Since 2022, total UK vacancies have fallen by more than one third, roughly 500,000 roles, with about one fifth of the decline concentrated in AI-exposed sectors. Vacancies in AI-affected occupations dropped 37%, compared with 26% elsewhere. Youth unemployment reached 13.7%, a near five-year high. Although official bodies estimate AI could raise productivity growth by up to 0.8 percentage points over the next decade, its short-term effect on the UK labor market is clearly negative.