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密西根大学12月消费者信心终值指数上升1.9点至52.9,但低于彭博经济学家调查的53.5中位数。尽管年底略有改善,调查主持人Joanne Hsu表示,信心仍较2024年12月低近30%,反映可负担性与「荷包」压力仍主导观感。

分项中,现况指标降至50.4的历史新低;前景(预期)指标升至4个月高点。对大型耐久财等「大额商品」的购买时机评估恶化至纪录最低,显示高生活成本与就业疑虑把整体情绪压在接近低档的水准,并可能影响原本仍撑住的家庭支出。

劳动市场方面,11月薪资成长仍偏疲弱,失业率升至4年高点4.6%。为防就业市场恶化,联准会本月稍早连续第3次会议降息,但对明年利率路径仍分歧。虽然本月就业预期略改善,仍有近2/3受访者(约66%)预期未来一年失业率续升;通膨预期为:未来一年4.2%(近1年低点)、未来5至10年3.2%。调查期间为11月18日至12月15日。

The University of Michigan’s final December consumer sentiment index rose 1.9 points to 52.9, undershooting the Bloomberg survey median forecast of 53.5. Despite late‑year improvement, director Joanne Hsu said sentiment remains nearly 30% below December 2024 as affordability and “pocketbook” concerns still dominate views.

Within the report, the current conditions gauge fell to a record low of 50.4, while the expectations gauge climbed to a four‑month high. Perceived buying conditions for big‑ticket items deteriorated to the lowest on record, consistent with a high cost of living and job‑market anxiety keeping sentiment near historical lows and posing risk to household spending.

On labor conditions, payroll growth was sluggish in November and unemployment rose to a four‑year high of 4.6%. The Fed cut rates earlier this month for a third straight meeting, though officials are split on next year’s path. Even with slight improvement in labor expectations, nearly two‑thirds of respondents expect unemployment to keep rising over the next year. Inflation expectations were 4.2% over the next year (near a one‑year low) and 3.2% over the next five to 10 years; responses were collected Nov. 18–Dec. 15.

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2025-12-21 (Sunday) · a218c75e4e793f4c68fa0c9900894a1c71411be8