亚洲正进入一个由持续上升的资本支出所带动的工业超级周期。AI 与 AI 相关基础设施、向可再生电力的转型、能源安全投资，以及国防相关支出的增加，预计在未来五年内以美元计算按 16% 的复合年增长率攀升，带动亚洲整体资本支出增长在这段期间达到 7%，约为 2023-25 年增速的三倍。预计到 2030 年，亚洲资本支出的年度运行率将达到 16tn 美元，高于目前的 11tn 美元。

资本支出与工业超级周期的强劲势头已在数据中显现。资本财进口已经超过 2017-18 年的高峰，亚洲采购经理人指数在 2 月升至四年半高位，工业生产增长也接近四年高点。自去年第四季以来，非科技出口明显走高，而 4 月和 5 月初的出口数据仍然强劲。亚洲企业部门必须加快支出，以追赶美国；同时，亚洲晶片制造商也正集体加速资本支出，以满足激增的需求。

在地缘政治紧张局势出现之前，中国预算中的国防支出增幅将超过 GDP 增长；印度已将今年国防资本支出的预算拨款提高 18%，而日本、韩国和台湾的政策制定者正把国防预算从目前合计占 GDP 的 1.7% 提高，目标是在中期内接近 GDP 的 3%。亚洲是全球的生产重镇，几乎占全球工业部门增加值的 50%，其中中国、日本、韩国和台湾将受益最大，印度也将从工业周期回升中受益，而澳洲和印尼则将作为大宗商品出口国获得收益。亚洲已经展开的多年工业与资本支出周期，正有望成为自 2000 年代以来最好的一轮。

Asia is entering an industrial supercycle fuelled by a sustained rise in capital expenditure. Capital expenditure in AI and AI-related infrastructure, the transition to renewable power, investment in energy security and rises in defence-related spending are expected to increase at a 16 per cent compound annual growth rate in dollar terms over the next five years, lifting Asia’s overall capex growth to 7 per cent over that span, around three times the pace over 2023-25. Asia’s capex is forecast to reach an annual run rate of $16tn in 2030, up from $11tn today.

The strength of the capex and industrial supercycle is already evident in the data. Capital goods imports have already surpassed the 2017-18 peaks, Asia’s purchasing managers’ index rose to a four-and-a-half-year high in February, and industrial production growth approached a four-year high. Non-tech exports moved meaningfully higher since the fourth quarter last year, and export data in April and early May remain robust. Asia’s corporate sector must accelerate spending to catch up with the US, while Asian chip manufacturers are collectively accelerating capex outlays to meet surging demand.

Before the onset of geopolitical tensions, China’s budgeted increase for defence spending will exceed GDP growth; India has raised budgetary allocations for defence capex by 18 per cent for this year, while policymakers in Japan, Korea and Taiwan are increasing defence budgets from a combined 1.7 per cent of GDP currently to a target of nearly 3 per cent of GDP over the medium term. Asia is the world’s production powerhouse, accounting for almost 50 per cent of the global industrial sector’s value added, and China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan will benefit the most, with India also benefiting from the industrial cycle pick-up and Australia and Indonesia standing to gain as commodity exporters. The multiyear industrial and capex cycle already under way in Asia is shaping up to be the best since the 2000s.