成本与时程是核心争点。特朗普宣称约 1,750 亿美元、3 年内可运作并于 2029 年任期结束前完成；彭博估算若要符合「对抗全域、全面空袭」的最坏情境，总成本约 1.1 兆美元，比 1,750 亿高出逾 500%（超过 6 倍），至少也约为其说法的 4 倍。仅太空拦截器星座，国会预算办公室在 2025 年 5 月估计即需 1,610 亿至 5,420 亿美元。国防部辖下飞弹防御局于 12 月 2 日选出约 1,000 家公司参与提案，竞逐尚未编列的 1,510 亿美元资金池；太空军 11 月底另授出多笔每笔低于 900 万美元的保密合约。国会在夏季法案中也已先行编列近 250 亿美元。
彭博并估算「较温和」版本：仅防御单一对手俄罗斯、且假设俄方发射其进攻飞弹的 80%，成本仍达 8,444 亿美元。文中提到加拿大若加入可能需支付 610 亿美元，约相当于 1.1 兆估算的 5%。其成本模型主要以武器与系统硬体单价乘以所需数量，并把历史数据换算为 2025 年美元；但不含营运、人员与新技术研发等费用，意味最终总额可能更高。另在太空拦截器计算中采用 480 秒（8 分钟）飞行时间，并示例性设计 60 颗近地轨道与 60 颗中地球轨道追踪卫星的组合。
The article examines President Trump’s proposed “Golden Dome” homeland missile and air defense system, created by an executive order signed January 27, 2025. It aims to deter and defend against “any foreign aerial attack” using layered defenses from ground to space, including space-based interceptor satellites—technology that does not yet exist—and it would not be guaranteed to work 100% of the time. The principal threat set is Russia, China, and North Korea, which together field hundreds of nuclear missiles and thousands of other weapons.
Cost and schedule are the central dispute. Trump cites about $175 billion, operational in three years and finished by 2029, but Bloomberg estimates roughly $1.1 trillion for worst‑case, all‑out protection—more than 500% higher (over 6×) than his figure and at least ~4× his stated target. The CBO (May 2025) puts a space‑based interceptor constellation alone at $161 billion to $542 billion. The Missile Defense Agency selected about 1,000 firms eligible for an unallocated $151 billion pool; the Space Force also issued multiple contracts under $9 million each, and Congress set aside nearly $25 billion in a summer bill.
Bloomberg also models a “more modest” case focused on Russia only, assuming it fires 80% of its offensive missiles, yet still totals $844.4 billion. Canada’s potential buy‑in is quoted at $61 billion (about 5% of the $1.1 trillion estimate). The estimates mainly multiply hardware unit costs by required quantities and convert historical figures to 2025 dollars, while excluding operations, personnel, and new R&D—suggesting upside risk. For space interceptors, Bloomberg uses parameters such as a 480‑second (8‑minute) flyout time and a tracking architecture combining 60 LEO and 60 MEO satellites.
