人工智能投资中的核心挑战并非技术判断或48小时内完成投资条款书，而是获得足够的股权比例。股权决定投资回报的规模：如果持股过低，即使公司成功退出，对基金回报的贡献也可能仅像“舍入误差”。在AI创业融资中，这一问题被放大，因为公司常在数月内连续完成多轮融资，持续稀释早期投资者的股份，迫使风险投资机构在“接受较低持股”与“退出投资机会”之间权衡。
近期案例显示竞争显著加剧。Yann LeCun 的研究型创业公司 Advanced Machine Intelligence 最初计划融资5亿欧元，但在投资者需求推动下几乎翻倍。即使在这一接近10亿欧元规模、被称为史上最大种子轮之一的融资中，公司仍拒绝了部分硅谷投资者，因为其要求过高持股或附加条款。与此同时，大规模初始融资使部分“种子轮”在实际规模与增长潜力上更接近成长轮，这类交易被市场形容为“coconut rounds”。
数据表明整体股权出售比例变化有限，但分配结构发生明显变化。Carta 对约2,500笔种子交易的分析显示，公司在种子轮出售给投资者的股权中位数仅从20%下降到19%。然而领投投资者获取的份额显著上升：2019年领投方通常获得约50%的可售股权，而如今接近60%。因此许多投资者感受到“可分配份额不足”。尽管如此，部分机构仍接受较低持股，因为即便是小比例投资，只要公司成长为像 OpenAI 或 Anthropic 这样的AI明星企业，也可能带来巨大回报。
The central challenge in AI venture investing is not technical evaluation or producing a term sheet within 48 hours, but securing sufficient ownership. Ownership determines the scale of returns: if the stake is too small, even a successful exit may appear as a rounding error in a fund’s performance. In AI startups this pressure is amplified because companies often raise multiple rounds within months, repeatedly diluting early investors and forcing venture capital firms to choose between accepting smaller stakes or skipping the deal entirely.
Recent cases show intensifying competition. Yann LeCun’s research startup Advanced Machine Intelligence initially planned to raise €500 million but nearly doubled the target as investor demand surged. Even in this seed round approaching €1 billion—one of the largest ever—the company rejected several Silicon Valley investors due to aggressive ownership demands or special terms. At the same time, unusually large early financings mean some “seed rounds” resemble growth rounds in scale and revenue potential, a phenomenon informally labeled “coconut rounds.”
Data indicates that the total equity sold has changed only slightly while allocation dynamics have shifted. Analysis by Carta covering nearly 2,500 seed deals shows the median equity sold to investors declined marginally from 20% to 19%. However, lead investors are capturing larger portions of that allocation: in 2019 they typically took about 50% of the equity offered, whereas today the share is closer to 60%. This concentration leaves many investors with smaller allocations. Nevertheless, some firms accept reduced ownership because even minor stakes can generate substantial returns if the company becomes a leading AI firm such as OpenAI or Anthropic.