下议院 500 席，单独执政需至少 251 席；自 2005 年后未再出现单一政党绝对多数。改革派主张修宪、抑制垄断、拆解寡头式经济以提升竞争与创新；反对阵营更倾向延续现状，以消费补贴与现金政策为主。消费刺激方案包含政府补贴消费 50% 的既有方案，以及拟提高到 70% 的版本；另有每日乐透构想，单日 9 名得主各得 100 万泰铢现金，并提出对年收入低于 36,000 泰铢者补贴。
财政与货币空间受限：公共债务约为 GDP 的 66%，接近自设 70% 上限；政策利率 1.25% 属全球偏低水准，且高家户负债与紧信用削弱降息效果。官方对今年成长预测落在 2%（财政部）与潜在 1.5%（央行）；各党承诺 3% 至 5% 但被质疑，较现实上限约 3%。竞争力下滑已压抑外资：2015 至 2023 年累积外国直接投资约为年 GDP 的 11%，低于马来西亚 25% 与越南 42%；集中度亦高，前 5% 企业掌握全经济逾 85% 营收。区域研究机构警告若无大胆改革，高所得目标可能延至 2050，落后于原定 2037。
Over the past nearly 20 years, Thailand’s repeated military coups and short-lived elected governments have made long-term planning difficult, pushing policy toward short-term stimulus and populist spending. The economy has shifted from “likely to catch up with rich countries” to a regional laggard, with stalled growth, rising debt, widening inequality, and a shrinking workforce. Since the pandemic, the economy is only about 5% larger than before Covid, roughly equal to about 1% average annual growth; by comparison, Vietnam and India are about 40% larger. Elections have become a contest between a reformist camp and two major populist blocs, but even if reformists become the largest party, coalition dynamics may still constrain them.
The lower house has 500 seats, and a party needs at least 251 seats to govern alone; no single party has won an outright majority since 2005. Reformists argue for constitutional amendments, curbing monopolies, and dismantling an oligopolistic economic structure to boost competition and innovation, while opponents are more inclined to maintain the status quo with consumption subsidies and cash policies. Proposed consumption-stimulus programs include an existing scheme where the government subsidizes 50% of consumer spending and a proposed version raising that to 70%. Other ideas include a daily lottery with 9 winners each receiving 1,000,000 baht in cash, and subsidies for people with annual income below 36,000 baht.
Fiscal and monetary space is limited: public debt is about 66% of GDP, near the government’s self-imposed 70% ceiling, and the policy interest rate is 1.25%, low by global standards; high household debt and tight credit also weaken the impact of rate cuts. Official growth forecasts for this year are around 2% (finance ministry) and potential 1.5% (central bank), while parties promise 3% to 5% but face skepticism, with a more realistic ceiling near 3%. Declining competitiveness has already dampened foreign investment: accumulated FDI in 2015–2023 was about 11% of annual GDP, below Malaysia’s 25% and Vietnam’s 42%; concentration is also high, with the top 5% of firms controlling over 85% of total revenue. A regional research body warns that without bold reforms, high-income status may be delayed to 2050, missing the original 2037 target.