苹果依靠 iPhone 17 系列在 2025 年实现同比双位数增长，并将在全球智能手机市场首次自 2011 年以来重回第一。Counterpoint 预计苹果 2025 年出货量增长 10%，明显高于三星的 4.6%，并将在 3.3% 增速的全球市场中取得 19.4% 份额。推动因素包括美国与中国市场的强劲升级潮、美元走弱带动新兴市场购买力回升，以及中美贸易紧张缓和所带来的销售改善。

换机周期成为关键变量。疫情期间购买手机的消费者已进入集中换机窗口，叠加 2023 年至 2025 年第二季度间共售出 3.58 亿台二手 iPhone，这一群体在未来数年也将推动新机需求。苹果预计将在 2026 年推出折叠屏 iPhone 与低价位的 iPhone 17e，并在 2027 年推出重大外观改版，为出货量提供持续动力。Counterpoint 因此推断苹果可维持全球第一位置直至 2029 年。

苹果自身财务指引亦显示动能增强。公司上月表示销售增速快于预期，节假日季度收入有望逼近 1,400 亿美元的新纪录。iPhone 17 在美国与中国的表现被视为扭转份额格局的核心驱动，使苹果在十余年后首次稳定压过三星。

Apple is set to regain the top global smartphone position in 2025 for the first time since 2011, powered by double-digit year-over-year growth from the iPhone 17 lineup in both the US and China. Counterpoint projects Apple’s shipments to rise 10% in 2025 versus Samsung’s 4.6%, giving Apple a 19.4% share in a global market expected to grow 3.3%. Demand has strengthened amid easing US-China trade tensions and a weaker dollar that boosts emerging-market purchases.

The replacement cycle is the main catalyst. Consumers who bought phones during the Covid-19 boom are now entering an upgrade phase, reinforced by 358 million secondhand iPhones sold between 2023 and Q2 2025—users likely to shift to new models. Apple is expected to launch a foldable iPhone and a lower-cost iPhone 17e in 2026, followed by a major redesign in 2027, extending its lead. Counterpoint forecasts Apple will retain the No. 1 rank through 2029.

Apple’s own guidance also points to accelerating momentum: the company said last month that sales are growing faster than expected, with the holiday quarter on track to approach a record $140 billion in revenue. Strong iPhone 17 performance in the US and China is viewed as the decisive force reshaping market leadership.