文章认为推动这一结构性上行动能的核心在于全球中央银行长期净买入。世界黄金协会数据显示，自2022年以来，中央银行（以中国人民银行为代表）累计新增4,000多公吨黄金储备；这与20世纪90年代持续净抛售的局面形成反差。价格亦在冲高后波动：2026年1月金价一度触及5,400美元/盎司（约173.72美元/克），几乎同期抛售后形成最大日内单日回撤（自1980年代初以来罕见），受凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）被提名美联储主席候选人与美元预期走强触发；同时市场对地缘政治风险、美国总统特朗普的加剧政策摩擦预期、加密资产与黄金挂钩ETF增多等因素持续定价，推动需求结构转变。
高杠杆的动量交易正在强化“顺势放大—回撤扩散”机制：如 USDT 发行商 Tether 持有约140公吨黄金，市值约240亿美元，显示数字资产体系也在回流黄金；高波动阶段，许多散户选择获利了结（如在约5,400美元/盎司后转现金）。与此同时，基金经理 John Hathaway 和投资者 Josh Brittain 都强调黄金仍具长期配置价值。高盛估计美国投资者的黄金ETF持仓仅占私人金融资产的0.17%，比2012年低6个基点（0.06个百分点），且低于其他地区尤其亚洲的持仓水平；而据估算全球金融资产中黄金约占6%，表明美国仍有较大扩容空间。Brittain 预期2030年金价或达10,000美元/盎司（约321.55美元/克）。
In the past year, gold has moved from a “retirement-safe” stereotype to a mainstream trade theme among global investors. Obioha Okereke, a 29-year-old technology consultant, made his first gold ETF purchase in September with 100 USD and added about 2,000 USD later. Although still a small part of his portfolio, that position is up nearly 17%. He says he entered gold as a hedge against uncertainty and random swings. In 2025, gold delivered one of its best years in more than 40 years, more than doubling from 2023 to 2025, then moving above 5,000 USD per ounce in late January 2026 (about 160.93 USD per gram), and has largely held near that level.
The move is linked to a structural shift in buyers. Since 2022, central banks led by the People’s Bank of China have added more than 4,000 metric tons to reserves, according to the World Gold Council, a sharp reversal of the 1990s era when many were net sellers. The article also highlights a broad risk trade: geopolitical shocks (Iran, Ukraine, Mexico, and U.S.-led pressures in Canada, Greenland, and Venezuela), weaker-dollar dynamics, lower expected interest rates, and concerns over rising sovereign debt and deficits. Gold reached about 5,400 USD per ounce after the 2025 rally (about 173.72 USD per gram), then suffered its largest one-day drop since the early 1980s when Kevin Warsh’s appointment outlook was seen as dollar-supportive and profit-taking accelerated.
Momentum now acts like a market force in itself. Newer participants—macro hedge funds, energy firms, and crypto-linked players—have joined, with Tether Holdings SA alone holding roughly 140 tons of gold valued near 24 billion USD. Josh Brittain and others banked gains above 5,400 USD per ounce and partially de-leveraged into cash, but their strategic view remains bullish. Gold remains under-allocated in the U.S.: Goldman Sachs says gold ETFs make up only 0.17% of private portfolios, 6 basis points below the 2012 peak, while gold is estimated at about 6% of global financial assets. Britain-based and Asia-heavy investors still dominate usage comparisons. Brittain, echoing the trade narrative, says he is waiting for another buy point and expects gold to reach 10,000 USD per ounce (about 321.55 USD per gram) by 2030.