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这篇文章指出,投资人正涌入 special purpose vehicles(SPVs)以在 SpaceX、OpenAI 与 Anthropic 上市前取得部位,但许多交易结构混浊,甚至未必真正持有标的股份。依据 Caplight,自 2021 年以来,SPV 资金规模扩大为 11 倍,去年流入金额超过 15 亿美元(约 14 亿欧元;原数 1.5 billion USD),而且 2025 年分层 SPV 已达 2.27 亿美元(约 2.11 亿欧元;原数 227 million USD),在其追踪的 35 亿美元(约 32.6 亿欧元;原数 3.5 billion USD)次级市场成交量中仍属少数。若 SpaceX、OpenAI 与 Anthropic 的 IPO 估值仅比最近一轮私募再高约 20%,美国股市市值就可能增加逾 3 兆美元(约 2.79 兆欧元;原数 3 trillion USD)。

需求狂热也伴随显著费用与诈欺风险。Caplight 表示,过去三年其追踪的 SpaceX 与 Anduril SPV 中,接近 40% 带有持续性费用,平均管理费为 1.2% 至 1.5%,平均 carried interest 为 13% 至 15%。文中案例包括 Giovanni Pennetta:检方称其挪用超过 1,000 万美元(约 920 万欧元;原数 10 million USD)投资人资金;他同意赔偿 1,170 万美元(约 1,080 万欧元;原数 11.7 million USD),并没收 1,250 万美元(约 1,150 万欧元;原数 12.5 million USD)。另有三人对一起 6,500 万美元(约 5,980 万欧元;原数 65 million USD)的 pre-IPO 诈欺案认罪。

文章的核心判断是,SPV 本身并非必然有害,但分层结构会把费用、资讯不对称与所有权不确定性层层放大,使最终报酬可能远低于投资人想像。Anduril 的 Matt Grimm 与其他市场参与者警告,当热门公司 IPO 成为流动性事件时,才会真正检验谁拥有可兑现的权利、谁只是买到对他人下注的包装产品。对于以退休、房贷或子女教育规划为前提的投资人而言,最坏情况不是回报减半,而是最终发现自己根本没有持有那些股份。

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The article argues that investors are piling into special purpose vehicles, or SPVs, to gain pre-IPO exposure to SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, but many deals are opaque and may not even confer direct ownership of the underlying shares. Caplight says SPV capital has grown 11-fold since 2021, drew more than $1.5 billion last year, and layered SPVs reached $227 million in 2025, still a small slice of the $3.5 billion in secondary volume it tracks. If the IPO valuations of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are only about 20% above their latest private rounds, more than $3 trillion could be added to the US equity market.

The surge in demand is matched by meaningful fee drag and fraud risk. Caplight says nearly 40% of the SpaceX and Anduril SPVs it tracked over the past three years carried ongoing fees, with average management fees of 1.2% to 1.5% and average carried interest of 13% to 15%. The article highlights the case of Giovanni Pennetta, whom prosecutors said misappropriated more than $10 million of investor money; he agreed to pay $11.7 million in restitution and forfeit $12.5 million. In a separate case, three men pleaded guilty in a $65 million pre-IPO fraud scheme.

The central conclusion is that SPVs are not inherently harmful, but layered structures amplify fees, information asymmetry, and uncertainty over ownership, leaving investors with returns far below what they expect. Matt Grimm of Anduril and other market participants warn that blockbuster IPOs will become the real accountability test, revealing who owns an enforceable claim and who merely bought exposure to another intermediary's bet. For investors planning around retirement, mortgage repayment, or college costs, the worst outcome is not just a return cut in half, but discovering they never owned the shares at all.
2026-03-12 (Thursday) · 0da083b79efd8c437f27fc6f2f9f046f7d11bc3d