根据 NOAA，2026 年大西洋飓风季预测为 8 到 14 个命名热带系统，其中 3 到 6 个会增强为飓风，1 到 3 个会达到或超过第 3 级。主要驱动因素是 El Niño：其暖海水带会改变大气环流，使大西洋更难生成和维持飓风；在过去 3 次超强 El Niño 期间，累积气旋能量这一同时反映风暴强度与持续时间的指标，都明显低于常态。

不过，El Niño 不是唯一变数。大西洋目前海温偏高，有利于风暴生成与增强；相反地，撒哈拉沙尘可抑制风暴形成，但沙尘何时爆发很难预测。去年就曾在活动预报偏强的情况下，因沙尘等因素而出现少于平均值的命名风暴，但仍生成了 Hurricane Melissa，这是大西洋盆地有史以来登陆最强的风暴之一。

NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs 指出，季节预报对政府预置物资与资源很有用，但真正决定灾害规模的是单一风暴的登陆结果；即使整体季节偏静，仍可能出现 Category 5 飓风登陆。另一方面，Trump administration 已削减 NOAA 人力并减少部分资料搜集，例如探空气球，同时 NOAA 正加强 AI 天气模式与新观测手段，例如首次 عملی运行的无人机；其 AI 旗舰模式在热带气旋路径预报上较佳，但强度预测仍落后传统模式。

NOAA forecasts 8 to 14 named tropical systems in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, including 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 Category 3 or stronger storms. The main driver is an El Niño event: its warm Pacific tongue shifts winds and upper-atmosphere conditions in ways that make Atlantic hurricanes harder to form and sustain. In the three previous super El Niños, accumulated cyclone energy, a measure of storm strength and longevity, was well below normal.

El Niño is not the only factor. The Atlantic is currently warmer than normal, which can aid storm formation and intensification, while Sahara dust can suppress development by disrupting the atmosphere. Dust outbreaks are difficult to forecast. Last year, below-average named storm formation occurred despite an active outlook, yet Hurricane Melissa still formed and became one of the strongest storms ever to make landfall in the Atlantic basin.

NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs said the seasonal outlook is useful for staging supplies and resources, but the impact ultimately depends on individual storms; even quiet seasons can still produce Category 5 landfalls. The Trump administration has cut NOAA staffing and reduced some data collection, including weather balloons, even as NOAA expands AI weather models and new observations such as operational drones. NOAA says its AI flagship model improves tropical cyclone track forecasts, though it still trails traditional models on intensity prediction.