几项关键数字和趋势揭示了美国对委内瑞拉政策的复杂性。卡特尔·德·洛斯·索莱斯(Cartel de los Soles)于11月24日正式被美国指定为“外国恐怖组织”(FTO)，尽管目前缺乏确凿证据表明马杜罗领导着该犯罪集团，而委内瑞拉军方仅有部分涉毒。美国政府还避免将委内瑞拉定性为“支恐国家”，这对外企如雪佛龙影响巨大。FTO标签自11月16日以美国航母福特号进入加勒比时宣布，并与军事威胁相结合，表明特朗普政府采取双轨策略——既未排除使用武力，也保留谈判可能。

此外，具体政策选项存在巨大不确定性。特朗普曾表示不排除地面入侵，同时又公开提出与马杜罗会谈的可能。马杜罗则声称，他愿“面对面”谈判。此前秘密谈判中，据称马杜罗曾向美国提供委内瑞拉能源和矿产领域的广泛准入权，并可能交出部分军方高层作为反毒品的“替罪羊”。不过，美国部分官员坚持重点是阻断毒品，而非恢复民主，意味着即使达成协议，马杜罗势力仍可能保留权力，仅更换领导人。

总体而言，形势朝着军事威慑、法律升级和幕后外交同时推进。特朗普政权或许倾向于通过军事压力达到“轰动性胜利”，但少数几种可能的结果中，委内瑞拉实现2018年大选选民所期待的真正民主化几率甚微。大多数趋势指向，更可能的是局部打击、大企业谨慎观望，以及反对派和百姓的民主期望被继续边缘化。

Key numbers and trends highlight the complexity of US policy toward Venezuela. The Cartel de los Soles was officially designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO) on November 24th, even though hard evidence is lacking that Maduro leads the cartel, and only some Venezuelan armed forces are involved in drug trafficking. The US has notably refrained from declaring Venezuela a state sponsor of terrorism, which would more deeply affect foreign companies such as Chevron. The FTO label, announced as the USS Gerald R. Ford entered the Caribbean on November 16th, aligns with military threats, demonstrating the Trump administration’s dual track—refusing to rule out force while considering talks.

Policy options remain highly uncertain. Trump has left open the possibility of a ground invasion but has also floated direct negotiations with Maduro. Maduro, in turn, has publicly offered to talk “face to face.” Earlier secret talks reportedly saw Maduro offer the US sweeping access to Venezuela’s oil and minerals and perhaps to hand over some military heads as drug-trafficking scapegoats. Some US officials insist the main focus is drug interdiction, not restoring democracy, so any agreement might leave Maduro’s regime in power, merely replacing the figurehead.

Overall, the situation is evolving through simultaneous military posturing, legal escalation, and backchannel diplomacy. The Trump administration may prefer headline-grabbing victories via intimidation, but among the likely outcomes, the prospect of genuine democratization in Venezuela—what most voters demanded last year—remains slim. Most trends point toward limited strikes, corporate caution, and the continued sidelining of democratic aspirations from the opposition and population.