证据聚焦于约 600 公里（373 英里）处的壅塞与干扰限制，该高度是巨型星座运作的区域，且可能阻碍来自更高轨道的讯号。ESA 在 10 月报告指出，主要巨型星座高度上的在轨活跃卫星密度如今已与碎片密度相近，而一项 2025 年研究估计其容量可能低至 148000 个物体。若发射节奏高于每年 2000 次，仅 4 个与 SpaceX 速度相当的计划，就可能在 2030 年代后期把这一层推向该上限。在此背景下，「纸上卫星」之所以重要，是因为 ITU 申报即使从未发射，仍会在协调规则中被计入，从而可能迫使竞争者针对仍未建成系统的名义干扰进行工程规避。
文章将中国提出的203000项主张置于更广泛的申报膨胀趋势中：一项2023年的研究发现，拟议卫星约有1000000颗，其中约454000颗与格雷格·怀勒相关倡议有关；但实际运行规模仍高度集中，星链为9646颗，而OneWeb约为600颗，领先比约16:1。其战略含义是，在竞争对手尚未具备猎鹰9号级别可重复使用发射经济性之前，他们的主要杠杆是于国际电信联盟程序上拖延，而SpaceX则持续每月累积实体资产领先优势。这种部署优势支撑了投资人对SpaceX可能达到1.5兆美元估值的叙事，以及更广泛的论点：未来网际网路容量将由地面网路转向低地球轨道星座。
The column argues that China’s filing for 203000 satellites by the mid-2030s looks dominant on paper but mostly reflects regulatory positioning rather than immediate orbital deployment. The baseline comparison is stark: Starlink has about 10000 satellites already in orbit, Amazon’s planned Kuiper network is capped at 3232, and total active orbiters worldwide have risen to more than 16000 after roughly quadrupling since 2020 as reusable rockets and lighter hardware reduced launch costs. SpaceX alone is adding more than 2000 satellites per year, so current deployment momentum, not filings, defines near-term power in Low Earth Orbit.
The evidence centers on congestion and interference constraints at roughly 600 kilometers (373 miles), where megaconstellations operate and can obstruct signals from higher orbits. ESA reported in October that active-satellite density at prime megaconstellation altitudes is now similar to debris density, and a 2025 study estimated capacity could be as low as 148000 objects. At a cadence above 2000 launches per year, only 4 programs matching SpaceX’s pace could push this layer toward that limit by the late 2030s. In this context, “paper satellites” matter because ITU filings are counted in coordination rules even if never launched, potentially forcing competitors to engineer around nominal interference from systems that remain unbuilt.
The article frames China’s 203000 claim as part of a wider filing inflation trend: a 2023 study found about 1000000 proposed satellites, including roughly 454000 linked to Greg Wyler initiatives. But operational scale remains highly concentrated, with Starlink at 9646 versus about 600 for OneWeb, a lead of roughly 16:1. The strategic implication is that until rivals field Falcon 9 class reusable launch economics, procedural delay at the ITU is their main lever, while SpaceX keeps compounding a real-asset lead each month. That deployment edge underpins investor narratives around a possible $1.5 trillion SpaceX valuation and the broader thesis that future internet capacity shifts from terrestrial networks to LEO constellations.