Bloomberg Economics 指出，Samsung Electronics 与 SK Hynix 的奖金制度正把韩国 AI 带动的晶片景气，转化为新的通膨与房市压力来源，迫使 Bank of Korea 面对更高的金融稳定与物价风险。Hyosung Kwon 认为，这一趋势提高了第三季转向鹰派的理由，且到 2027 年上半年之前，仍有至少 100 个基点的紧缩空间。

在现行分红结构下，Samsung 与 SK Hynix 可供现金或可售股票形式领取的税后报酬，可能从今年的 4 兆韩元（约 26.5 亿美元）升至 2028 年的 30 兆韩元。Samsung 的暂定劳资协议将 10.5% 的营业利益用于奖金，部分以库藏股支付；SK Hynix 则已将 10% 的营业利益以现金奖金分配。

Kwon 认为，多数资金将流向股票与住房而非消费，因为晶片员工收入较高且消费倾向较低；Yongin、Dongtan 与 Suwon 等晶片相关房市最可能受惠，并可能透过预期与替代需求外溢到 Seoul 公寓价格。她还指出，两家公司明年的税后奖金池约等于 2021-2025 年平均年度房贷增量的 8%，到 2028 年升至 57%，而 Samsung、SK Hynix 也正成为 Hyundai Motor、HD Hyundai Heavy Industries、LG Uplus、Samsung Biologics 与 Kakao 等企业薪资谈判的参考。

Bloomberg Economics said Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix bonus systems are turning South Korea’s AI-led chip boom into a new source of inflation and housing-market pressure, forcing the Bank of Korea to confront higher financial-stability and price risks. Hyosung Kwon said the trend strengthens the case for a hawkish pivot in the third quarter and leaves room for at least 100 basis points of tightening by the first half of 2027.

Under current payout structures, after-tax compensation available as cash or sellable stock from Samsung and SK Hynix could rise from 4 trillion won ($2.65 billion) this year to 30 trillion won by 2028. Samsung’s tentative labor deal allocates 10.5% of operating profit to bonuses, partly in treasury shares, while SK Hynix already pays 10% of operating profit as cash bonuses.

Kwon said most of the liquidity is likely to go into equities and housing rather than consumption because semiconductor workers have relatively high incomes and a lower propensity to spend. Yongin, Dongtan and Suwon are likely beneficiaries, with spillover risk to Seoul apartment prices; the two firms’ after-tax bonus pool next year would equal about 8% of the average annual increase in mortgage loans during 2021-2025, rising to 57% by 2028, and the model is spreading to wage talks at Hyundai Motor, HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, LG Uplus, Samsung Biologics and Kakao.