印度如今正试图建立类似产业。它已承诺投入近40亿美元，以加速煤化工项目，并希望到2030年把多达7500万吨煤加工成肥料、塑胶和其他合成产品。政府将支付新工厂建设成本的20%，并为未来项目分配煤炭储量，为企业提供长期供应确定性。官员们看见多重好处：由于煤炭可取代进口石油和天然气，能源安全将更强；国内肥料产量将提升粮食安全；进口账单和外汇压力将下降；而且这一产业的寿命也会更长，因为它已支撑约750,000个采矿职位。
复制中国模式仍然困难，因为印度煤的灰分过高，不易进行化学转化，而且印度在技术上也没有中国领先20年的优势，尤其是在用于制造烯烃的先进甲醇路线方面。融资也是一项限制，因为项目必须在石油和天然气价格下跌时仍保持竞争力。印度最早在2020年宣布煤化工计划，但建设寥寥；2024年的补贴推动反应冷淡，直到支持力度翻了四倍后，私营部门才开始参与。更广泛的背景是一个紧俏的煤炭市场：全球煤炭需求去年创下纪录，预计在2026年还会再创纪录，并可能在未来几年维持在接近峰值的水平，这意味著新的煤化工产能对气候和市场的影响可能相当可观且持续很久。
China and India together account for about 70% of global coal consumption, so any expansion of coal use has worldwide climate consequences by prolonging demand for the dirtiest fossil fuel and increasing CO2 emissions. A major driver is China’s coal-to-chemicals sector, which turns coal into products such as urea, an important nitrogen fertilizer for rice and corn; China makes about 80% of its urea from coal, while India makes almost all of its urea from oil and gas. Despite its size, the Chinese industry has stayed relatively obscure even though it consumes about 380 million metric tons of coal as feedstock, which would make it the world’s 3rd-largest coal consumer if it were a country.
India is now trying to build a similar industry. It has pledged nearly $4 billion to accelerate coal-to-chemicals projects and wants to process as much as 75 million tons of coal into fertilizers, plastics, and other synthetic products by 2030. The government will pay 20% of new plant construction costs and allocate coal reserves for future projects, giving companies long-term supply certainty. Officials see multiple benefits: stronger energy security because coal can replace imported oil and gas, improved food security through domestic fertilizer output, lower import bills and foreign-exchange pressure, and a longer life for an industry that already supports about 750,000 mining jobs.
Replicating China’s model remains difficult because Indian coal has too much ash for easy chemical conversion, and India lacks China’s 2-decade lead in technology, especially for advanced methanol-based routes used to make olefins. Financing is also a constraint, since projects must stay competitive when oil and gas prices fall. India first announced a coal-to-chemicals plan in 2020, but little was built; a 2024 subsidy push drew weak interest, and only after support was quadrupled did the private sector begin to engage. The broader backdrop is a tight coal market: global coal demand hit a record last year, is expected to set another record in 2026, and may remain near peak levels for several years, meaning the climate and market effects of new coal-to-chemicals capacity could be substantial and long-lasting.