美国银行股的年初首次考验来自大型银行财报：六家最大华尔街银行被预期在企业并购（M&A）回暖、强劲交易收入与人工智能带来的生产率降本推动下实现“巨额”盈利，但这些因素已基本反映在去年KBW Bank Index的29%涨幅中；该指数涵盖24家放贷机构并在新年附近徘徊于纪录高位。该指数已连续两年跑赢S&P 500 Index，若2026年延续，将是自互联网泡沫破裂后以来最长的领先期。
投资者更关心2026年的展望，尤其是美国消费者：政府数据的停摆与中断使前景更不透明，焦点集中在消费贷款、贷款损失准备，以及信用卡使用与还款表现。市场还将追问President Donald Trump要求信用卡放贷机构将利率上限设为10%、为期一年的指令；Truist估计若实施将使该业务转为亏损，且次级（subprime）信用卡受冲击最大，风险暴露顺序为信用卡股（含店内卡）优先，其次大行，区域银行远居第三。乐观论点包括去监管周期的早期阶段与收益率曲线在强GDP环境下变陡。
财报日程从JPMorgan Chase & Co.与Bank of New York Mellon Corp于周二开始，随后一周内有Citigroup Inc.、Wells Fargo & Co.、Bank of America Corp.、Goldman Sachs Group Inc.与Morgan Stanley。Bloomberg Intelligence数据显示，S&P 500内放贷机构上季同比盈利增速预期为8.1%，略低于全体成分股的8.4%。除宏观与消费者外，投资者还评估资本市场收入在经历“丰收年”后的可持续性、估值是否已达或高于公允，以及降息环境下净息差对“正向斜率”收益率曲线的依赖；Jefferies的早期读数包含与破产的First Brands Group相关的3000万美元损失，但仍被解读为交易与投行业务动能加速进入2026。
US bank stocks face their first test of the year as big banks report results: the six largest Wall Street banks are expected to post a “massive” earnings haul from a rebound in corporate dealmaking (M&A), strong trading revenue, and lower costs tied to AI-driven productivity, but those drivers largely powered last year’s 29% rise in the KBW Bank Index, which includes 24 lenders, and the index is hovering near a record high. It has outperformed the S&P 500 Index for two straight years, and if 2026 extends that run it would be the longest streak since the aftermath of the dot-com bust.
Investors mainly want the 2026 outlook, especially on the US consumer: shutdowns and interruptions to government data have clouded visibility, putting emphasis on consumer lending, loan-loss provisions, and how credit-card balances are used and repaid. Executives will also face questions about President Donald Trump’s directive that credit-card lenders cap interest rates at 10% for a year; Truist estimates enactment would swing the business to unprofitable, with subprime cards hit hardest, and exposure ranks credit-card stocks (notably store cards) first, then big banks, with regional banks a distant third. The optimistic case cites an early deregulation cycle and a steepening yield curve in a strong-GDP environment.
The reporting slate starts Tuesday with JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of New York Mellon Corp, followed later in the week by Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co., Bank of America Corp., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and Morgan Stanley. Bloomberg Intelligence data show expected year-over-year earnings growth of 8.1% for S&P 500 lenders last quarter versus 8.4% for the full index. Beyond macro and consumer signals, investors are testing whether capital-markets income is sustainable after a bumper year, whether valuations are at or above fair value, and how rate cuts affect margins given reliance on a positively sloped yield curve; Jefferies’ early read included a $30 million First Brands Group-linked loss but was still framed as accelerating trading and investment-banking momentum into 2026.