其表述被定位为对COVID时期航运中断及乌克兰、伊朗与中东冲突下脆弱全球供应链的回应，核心是中美关系紧张。北京在处理环节的主导地位和对战略材料的周期性出口管制，已提高西方经济体的风险意识。官员预期今年开始集中采购，旨在帮助工厂吸收冲击并融资新的矿源。Wood Mackenzie的数据显示成本差异巨大：仅铜与铝60天美国需求估计需95亿美元，超过整体预算的三分之三以上；而石墨、铋与铱分别约900万美元、100万美元、1400万美元，稀土两个月需求约1.31亿美元。
批评者指出，囤积仍可能扭曲市场。若购买后价格下跌，亏损可能由公共部门承担，而突发性需求又可能推高本已偏紧的商品。分析人士还将其与中国在低谷时国家买入、高位时释放的模式对比。美国过去已持有钴、镍与石墨的国防储备，但在2025年中国对用于国防、电动车与风力机组磁体材料加码限制后，像Bunting Magnetics这样的企业仍报告重大供应压力。一年后，依赖度仍高，因中国仍保有稀土精炼规模与成本优势。日本曾将稀土进口依赖度由约90%降至2020年的60%，但到一月又升回约75%；Jovanovic表示，Project Vault不是万灵丹，但可作为产业政策的一个起始层次。
At a packed Oval Office ceremony in February, Donald Trump announced Project Vault, a U.S. strategic stockpile of critical minerals. The plan has $12 billion in public and private funding: $10 billion in government capital from the Export-Import Bank and about $2 billion from banks and investment funds. GM, Boeing, and Google and other industrial buyers have also committed to purchasing materials. Unlike a narrow emergency buffer, this program targets 60 critical minerals and is designed as a market-facing system in which traders and logistics firms buy, transport, and store inputs across U.S. sites so supply can support day-to-day production, not only crisis response.
It is framed as an answer to fragile global supply chains exposed by COVID-era shipping disruptions and conflicts in Ukraine, Iran, and the Middle East, with China policy central. Beijing’s processing dominance and periodic export controls over strategic materials have increased concern in Western economies. Officials expect gathering to start this year to help factories absorb shocks and finance new sources. But Wood Mackenzie data show huge cost dispersion: 60 days of U.S. demand for copper and aluminum would cost $9.5 billion, over three-quarters of the budget, while graphite, bismuth, and indium are about $9 million, $1 million, and $14 million, and two months of rare-earths about $131 million.
Critics stress that stockpiling can still distort markets. If prices fall after buys, losses may fall on the public sector, and sudden demand can lift already tight commodities. Analysts also compare with China’s pattern of state buying on weakness and selling on rallies. The U.S. already held cobalt, nickel, and graphite reserves for defense, but after 2025 Chinese restrictions on materials for defense, EVs, and wind-turbine magnets, firms such as Bunting Magnetics still reported major supply stress. One year later, dependence remains because China retains rare-earth refining scale and cost leadership. Japan lowered rare-earth import dependence from around 90% to 60% by 2020, then it rose back to about 75% by January; Jovanovic says Project Vault is not enough alone but is an initial industrial-policy layer.