尽管硬碟在科技演进中不如固态硬碟或随机存取记忆体那样引人注目，但对于储存大型语言模型训练所需的海量数据而言，高容量的硬碟模组依然不可或缺。目前硬碟价格约为每TB 15美元，预期将随著需求升温而持续走高。
新竞争者极难进入硬碟市场以缓解供需失衡，因为该行业已被强大且理性的寡头所垄断。竞争门槛不仅在于资金，更在于技术升级所需的时间、跨学科技术的整合能力以及高度整合且产能饱和的供应链。
A recent report by Morgan Stanley highlights that the hard disk drive (HDD) market cycle is elongating due to the strong performance of core cloud services and the rising demand for AI inferencing and agents. Consequently, supply shortages are now expected to persist through at least 2028, leading to a significant strengthening of HDD prices.
Although HDDs lack the glamour of solid-state drives or RAM, these high-capacity storage modules remain essential for housing the massive data corpuses used to train large language models. The current pricing, hovering around $15 per terabyte, is projected to potentially double in the next few years amid growing demand.
The entry of new players to disrupt the existing rational HDD oligopoly is highly unlikely due to steep barriers. The challenges are not about capital but rather the long qualification periods for new technology, the need for deep multi-disciplinary integration, and a highly consolidated and fully utilized supply chain.