Ship-tracking data显示，China与Vietnam在South China Sea的对峙正升温。以CCG 5205为代表的中国船舰，到2025年底已在被Malaysia、Philippines、Taiwan与越来越多Vietnam主张的海上设施10 nautical miles内频繁出没；过去一年，超过100艘Chinese vessels曾靠近Vietnam-controlled features，其中至少45艘与state-backed entities相关，较2022年5月至2023年4月的57艘几乎翻倍。

最集中的区域在Spratly Islands。靠近Sand Cay、Namyit Island与Petley Reef的Chinese vessels，于截至2026年4月30日的12个月内达89艘，较三年前同期的50艘大增；同时，Vietnam自2021年以来已在21个据点reclaim nearly 2,771 acres of land，建造并加固约两打artificial islands，显示双方都在强化前哨与巡弋能力。

风险不只在军事，也在经济。文中估计，若South China Sea航道受阻，全球GDP将下滑约1.9%，约2兆美元；该航道每年承载约4兆美元贸易。Vietnam虽与US、Philippines、Indonesia、Malaysia及Taiwan加强协调，但其国防支出仍不到China约2500亿美元的十分之一，且China约占区域军费44%。

Ship-tracking data show that rivalry between China and Vietnam in the South China Sea is intensifying. Chinese Coast Guard ship CCG 5205 and other Chinese vessels have increasingly approached Vietnam-claimed features; by end-2025, CCG 5205 had passed within 10 nautical miles of nearly 30 disputed features, while more than 100 Chinese vessels crossed that zone near Vietnamese-controlled sites in the past year, nearly double the 57 recorded from May 2022 to April 2023.

The sharpest concentration is in the Spratly Islands. Chinese vessel pings within 10 nautical miles of Sand Cay, Namyit Island, and Petley Reef rose to 89 in the 12 months ended April 30, up from 50 three years earlier. Vietnam has responded by fortifying about two dozen artificial islands and reclaiming nearly 2,771 acres across 21 occupied features since 2021, showing a parallel build-up on both sides.

The stakes are economic as well as military. Bloomberg Economics estimates that disruption to South China Sea trade could cut global GDP by about 1.9%, or roughly $2 trillion, threatening a route that carries about $4 trillion in annual trade. Vietnam is deepening security ties with the US and regional partners, but its defense budget remains far smaller than China’s roughly $250 billion, even as China accounts for about 44% of regional military spending.