主要证据显示交付时点与市场需求不匹配：哈佛与提许曼斯派尔在 2021 年推进 Enterprise Research Campus 计划，于 2022 年 7 月同意将 25% 公寓设定为补贴租金（接近波士顿当时要求的 2 倍），约一年后取得 $750 million 贷款，并在 2023 年 11 月启动施工；但到完工时，随著始于 2022 年的升息与生技荣景后回调推升空置率，需求已转弱。该建筑目前约有 20% 已出租，罗氏作为主力租户承租约 20% 空间，而高力国际估计阿尔斯顿—布莱顿约 70% 的已完工实验室空间可供出租。与此同时，哈佛面临机构性压力：$113 million 预算赤字、每年最高可达 $300 million 的新捐赠基金税风险、联邦税务与资助措施可能接近每年 $1 billion 的警告，以及一笔每英亩约 $5 million 的带状商场出售案，买方称该价格约为附近价值的一半。
其影响不只限于单一专案：波士顿的财政与交通流动目标，与停滞的基础建设及延后的土地生产力紧密相连。一项耗资 $2 billion 的 I-90 线形调整与 West Station 计划，由州政府资金及 Harvard、Boston、Boston University 承诺的 $300 million 支持（其中包含 Harvard 为 West Station 提供的 $90 million），原本仰赖联邦支援；虽然在 2024 年 3 月曾核发 $335 million 补助，但其后多数资金被撤销，且在逆转前仅配置 $8 million。这一暂停阻断了重建潜力，该潜力估计可带来每年 $6.4 billion 的经济产出、每年超过 36,000 个工作机会，以及每年约 $238 million 的州与市税收；然而波士顿已面临 2% 的部门删减与对财产税的高度依赖。相对绩效比较进一步强化时机论点：MIT 的 $27.4 billion 捐赠基金截至 6 月的 20 年年化报酬为 10.6%，而 Harvard 的 $56.9 billion 基金表现落后，且 Harvard 将不动产曝险自 fiscal 2016 的 14.5% 降至 fiscal 2025 的 5%，显示风险偏好降低，即使 Allston 仍需要长周期资本与政策协同。
Harvard’s Allston strategy, publicly framed by Larry Summers in 2003 as a long-horizon expansion beyond space-constrained Cambridge, has reached a difficult inflection point in 2026 despite more than 2 decades of land assembly and planning. The core idea was to turn hundreds of acres across the Charles River into a research and innovation district rivaling MIT’s Kendall Square and Stanford-linked ecosystems, but execution has repeatedly collided with timing shocks: leadership turnover after 2006, the 2008 financial crisis, and delayed follow-through. The latest flagship, a 510,000 sq ft lab building (about 47,400 m2), opened into a weak biotech cycle, while the wider district remains fragmented by infrastructure barriers, including roughly 90 acres (about 36.4 ha) constrained by the I-90 corridor.
The main evidence shows a mismatch between delivery timing and market demand. Harvard and Tishman Speyer advanced Enterprise Research Campus plans in 2021, agreed in July 2022 to set 25% of apartments at subsidized rents (nearly 2x Boston’s then requirement), secured a $750 million loan about a year later, and launched construction in November 2023; by completion, demand had softened as rate hikes that began in 2022 and a post-boom biotech pullback lifted vacancies. The building is about 20% leased, with Roche as anchor tenant at roughly 20% of space, while Colliers estimates around 70% of completed lab space in Allston-Brighton is available. In parallel, Harvard faces institutional pressure: a $113 million budget deficit, potential new endowment taxes of up to $300 million annually, warnings that federal tax and funding actions could approach $1 billion per year, and a strip-mall sale at about $5 million per acre, roughly half nearby values according to the buyer.
Implications extend beyond one project: Boston’s fiscal and mobility goals are tied to stalled infrastructure and delayed land productivity. A $2 billion I-90 straightening and West Station plan, backed by state funding plus $300 million pledged by Harvard, Boston, and Boston University (including Harvard’s $90 million for West Station), depended on federal support; although a $335 million grant was awarded in March 2024, most funds were later rescinded, with only $8 million allocated before reversal. That pause blocks redevelopment potential estimated at $6.4 billion in annual economic output, more than 36,000 jobs per year, and about $238 million in annual state-city taxes, while Boston already faces 2% departmental cuts and heavy property-tax dependence. Relative performance comparisons reinforce the timing thesis: MIT’s $27.4 billion endowment posted 10.6% annualized over 20 years through June, while Harvard’s $56.9 billion fund lagged, and Harvard cut real-estate exposure from 14.5% in fiscal 2016 to 5% in fiscal 2025, suggesting reduced risk appetite even as Allston still requires long-duration capital and policy alignment.