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Christine Lagarde 指出欧洲数位欧元进度过慢,连她 8 年任期都可能结束前仍难以启动。如今第一阶段发行预期在2029年,延误让紧迫感上升。欧洲官员把它视为单纯科技试验,而是作为更广泛的地缘政治货币自治布局,目标是降低对美国和中国的依赖。面对 Donald Trump 的不确定政策与其亲加密货币取向,欧洲看到美元长期主导可能出现风险,因此将数位主权提到更高优先序。

与此同时,美国导向的稳定币迅速扩张并加固美元支配力。市场上约有3200亿美元稳定币流通,其中约99%锚定美元。若稳定币成为主流支付轨道,将等同提供24/7、低成本、即时的美元银行化支付。全球最大的稳定币发行商 Tether(总部在 El Salvador)旗下 USDT 大约持有1170亿美元美国国债。欧洲目前没有可比规模的替代体系;资料亦显示除美元外未见其他单一货币突破10亿美元,形成对欧洲金融圈更大外压。

欧元在全球央行外汇储备中的份额约20%,仍远低于美元,但欧洲的外部依赖正在加深:欧元区近三分之二的卡支付仍由非欧洲公司处理,并高度依赖 Visa、Mastercard、Apple、Google 等基础设施。政治上,欧洲议会已表态支持数位欧元,但关键委员会表决被延后至至少6月;西班牙也主张2028年前上线而非2029。银行业游说、跨域监管争议与多发行体制争论仍在持续。欧洲央行也提出零售与wholesale数位货币方案,试图因应未来支付路径被「武器化」的地缘风险。

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Christine Lagarde warned that Europe’s digital euro progress had been so slow that her eight-year presidency might end before launch. The first ECB issuance is still expected in 2029, so urgency has risen as delays continue. EU officials frame it not as a tech gimmick but as a geopolitical monetary-autonomy strategy to reduce dependence on the US and China. With Donald Trump’s unpredictable policies and pro-crypto stance, they see growing risk to long-term dollar primacy and have moved digital sovereignty up the agenda.

At the same time, US-linked stablecoins are expanding quickly and strengthening dollar hegemony. About US$320 billion in stablecoins are in circulation, and roughly 99% are pegged to the US dollar. If stablecoins become mainstream payment rails, they effectively provide 24/7, low-cost, instant dollar-based banking. Tether, the issuer of the largest stablecoin USDT, reportedly holds about US$117 billion in U.S. Treasuries. Europe has no comparable scale in contrast; charts also show no other single currency category has surpassed US$1 billion, adding pressure on Europe’s payment architecture.

The euro remains around 20% of global central-bank reserves, still far below the dollar, while dependence trends are rising. Nearly two-thirds of euro-area card transactions are processed by non-European firms, and core payment infrastructure still relies on Visa, Mastercard, Apple, and Google. Politically, the European Parliament backed the project, but a key committee vote was postponed to at least June; Spain has pushed for a 2028 launch instead of 2029. Bank lobbying and regulatory disputes continue, and ECB authorities also warn that losing control of money risks economic sovereignty, especially as payment-rail vulnerabilities and geopolitical sanction risks become more visible.
2026-05-05 (Tuesday) · d428e598426033916838e842c787863fd2fdce26