美国2024年大选后，在特朗普总统执政一年内，美国GDP增速仍领先富裕国家，标普500指数由50万亿美元升至约60万亿美元，尽管期间因贸易战一度暴跌7万亿美元，最终超越分析师预期。企业利润显著上升，企业合并势头强劲，仅一周就有三项总额700亿美元的大型并购。公司税下调和美联储降息得以实现，但平均关税升至10%。美国政府还持有美国钢铁“黄金股”、大量稀土矿业股份以及英特尔10%的股份，并要求Nvidia和AMD对华销售让渡15%的收益。

面对特朗普政府的不可预测和高压政策，大多数企业采取消极顺从策略，避免引人关注，避免招致总统的惩罚或批评。企业如苹果、特斯拉在受特朗普关注后经历政策反转，CEO们不得不在捐赠、游说和提前通报等多种方式中权衡，譬如苹果向特朗普赠送金饰以争取其青睐。大型企业不愿直接挑战政府，对涉及关税的新诉讼通常保持沉默，仅依靠团体如商会采取集体行动以降低风险。

高管们普遍担忧政策不可预测性，许多重要决策绕过公开讨论，转为私下直接与总统沟通，每次会谈均聚焦提出能同时满足总统与自身诉求的“解决方案”。真正的担忧在于特朗普政府持续的“逐案交易”政策，促使公司将精力由创新转向寻求豁免、低调行事与策略应对，以适应未来三年的不确定环境。

A year into Donald Trump’s 2024 presidency, US GDP continues to outpace other developed countries and the S&P 500 rose from $50trn to about $60trn, despite a $7trn drop during a trade-war scare, ultimately beating forecasts thanks to an AI boom. Company profits surged and merger activity soared, with three mega-deals earning $70bn in a single week. Corporate tax cuts and Fed rate reductions materialized, though average tariffs rose to 10%. The government now owns a “golden share” in US Steel, stakes in rare-earth miners, 10% of Intel, and demands 15% of Nvidia’s and AMD’s China chip sales.

Facing Trump’s volatile decision-making, most companies adopt a passive, deferential strategy to avoid presidential scrutiny or punishment. Firms like Apple and Tesla suffered rapid policy shifts when they drew Trump’s ire; CEOs weighed between donations, lobbying, and advanced notification of big deals—Apple even gifted gold to curry favor. Corporations are reluctant to challenge the administration, letting groups like the Chamber of Commerce litigate on contentious tariffs, while staying publicly silent to limit risk.

Executives widely fear ongoing unpredictability, shifting sensitive discussions from media to private meetings with Trump, focusing on solutions that please both sides. The real concern is the administration’s deal-by-deal policymaking, which diverts corporate focus from innovation to navigating exemptions and maintaining invisibility, as businesses brace for three more years of uncertainty.