相较于AI，居家办公（WFH）的广泛采用为这个充满挑战的劳动市场提供了更为强力的解释。根据LSE的研究，远端管理初级员工的成本更高，且远端的年轻毕业生所接受的培训较少，这限制了他们的生产力，即使在他们成长并要求更高薪资时亦然。这一发现与纽约联邦准备银行的研究一致，该研究指出远端工作使年轻员工边缘化，并失去了接受监督与指导的机会。虽然WFH提供了表面的弹性，但它损害了长期的职涯发展。远端的毕业生错失了观察资深同事的机会，也未能习得导航办公室政治、管理客户和建立专业网络等对成功至关重要的基本职场技能。
目前，AI成为了总体经济怨言和缩减成本措施的便利替罪羔羊。科技高阶主管经常宣称AI正在取代工作，但他们往往将其作为因财务原因裁员的借口，例如 Jack Dorsey 在 Block 启动的4,000名裁员。同样地，管理者发现归咎于AI，比强制要求不情愿的员工返回实体办公室更为容易。尽管如果经济恶化，AI和WFH的结合可能会使招聘进一步恶化，但毕业生可以减轻这些风险。建议的解决途径是寻找具有强大办公室文化的公司，并且每天到办公室上班，以获得必要的指导和长期的职涯发展。
Recent college graduates, defined as young workers aged 22 to 27, face a brutal job market with unemployment rates nearing recession levels. While artificial intelligence (AI) is frequently blamed for this downturn, recent economic research suggests otherwise. A study by the London School of Economics (LSE) analyzed 243 million new hires and 407 million online job postings from 2017 to 2025 across the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada. The researchers observed a significant decline in the hiring of new graduates starting in 2022. Although this decline occurred in knowledge-intensive, computer-reliant industries that are rapid adopters of AI, the study revealed that after controlling for the prevalence of working from home (WFH), the actual impact of AI on graduate hiring was negligible.
Instead of AI, the widespread adoption of WFH provides a much stronger explanation for the challenging labor market. According to the LSE study, managing junior staff remotely is more expensive, and remote young graduates receive less training, which limits their productivity even as they mature and demand higher pay. This finding aligns with a Federal Reserve Bank of New York study, which concludes that remote work leaves younger workers sidelined and deprived of supervision. While WFH offers superficial flexibility, it harms long-term career development. Remote graduates miss opportunities to observe senior colleagues and fail to acquire essential workplace skills, such as navigating office politics, managing clients, and building professional networks, which are crucial for success.
Currently, AI serves as a convenient scapegoat for macroeconomic complaints and cost-cutting measures. Tech executives frequently announce that AI is replacing jobs, but they are often using it as a pretext for layoffs driven by financial reasons, such as Jack Dorsey initiating 4,000 job cuts at Block. Similarly, managers find it easier to blame AI rather than mandate that reluctant employees return to physical offices. Although AI and WFH could collectively worsen hiring if the economy deteriorates, graduates can mitigate these risks. The recommended path forward is to find companies with strong in-office cultures and work on-site daily to secure necessary mentorship and long-term career progression.