基于 Ship-tracking data 的分析显示，南中国海中越对峙风险正在上升。2022 年 10 月 31 日起，中国海警 5205 持续在争议海域巡弋；到 2025 年底，它已在南海内接近约 30 个由马来西亚、菲律宾、台湾与越南主张的海上特征。过去一年内，超过 100 艘中国船只、其中至少 45 艘与海警或海上民兵等国家支持实体相关，曾在距越南控制海上据点 10 海里（约 18.5 公里）内通过，几乎是 2022 年 5 月至 2023 年 4 月期间 57 艘的两倍。

中国活动最密集的三个目标是 Sand Cay、Namyit Island 与 Petley Reef；在截至 2026 年 4 月 30 日的 12 个月内，靠近这三处 10 海里内的中国船只达到 89 艘，而三年前同期仅 50 艘。与此同时，越南自 2021 年以来在其占据的 21 处特征上填海约 2,771 英亩（约 1,122 公顷），并已建设约两打人工岛，显示双方都在以扩建与加固提升吓阻能力。

冲突的代价同样巨大：这些新加固据点位于一条每年承载约 4 兆美元全球贸易的战略通道上。Bloomberg Economics 估计，若南海贸易受扰，全球 GDP 可能下降约 1.9%，约 2 兆美元。越南国防支出目前比中国约 2,500 亿美元的规模小逾 20 倍，但 Bloomberg Intelligence 预期到 2030 年，越南、日本与菲律宾的合计国防开支将每年增加超过 150 亿美元。

Bloomberg analysis of Starboard Maritime Intelligence ship-tracking data found more than 100 Chinese vessels, including at least 45 tied to state-backed entities, passed within 10 nautical miles of Vietnamese-controlled features over the past year, nearly double the 57 in May 2022-April 2023. China’s patrols were especially concentrated around Sand Cay, Namyit Island and Petley Reef, where the count rose to 89 in the 12 months ended April 30, up from 50 three years earlier.

Vietnam has reclaimed nearly 2,771 acres across 21 occupied features since 2021, an unprecedented expansion surpassed only by China. The article says the new fortified features sit on a corridor carrying roughly $4 trillion in annual global trade, and that a disruption could cut world GDP by about 1.9%, or roughly $2 trillion. Vietnam’s defense budget is more than 20 times smaller than China’s roughly $250 billion, yet regional defense spending is expected to rise by more than $15 billion a year through 2030.

The data indicate that China-Vietnam friction in the Spratlys is intensifying as both sides reinforce positions and expand patrols. China now owns or claims over 80% of the South China Sea under the nine-dash line, but Vietnam’s build-out, plus tighter coordination with the US, the Philippines, Indonesia, and others, is raising deterrence while also raising the odds of a maritime confrontation. (Key numbers: 4, 1.9, 2, 2,500)