世界气象组织（WMO）表示，厄尔尼诺正在形成，且今年发展机率很高：6月至8月间出现的机率为80%，并有90%机率持续到至少11月。厄尔尼诺通常每2至7年出现一次，会削弱信风、使东太平洋海水升温，进而推高全球气温并扰乱降雨分布，造成部分地区干旱、另一些地区暴雨，且也会影响飓风生成。

报导指出，今年的情况特别令人担忧，因为这次厄尔尼诺若形成，可能比典型事件更强，且与气候变迁叠加后，冲击会更加严重。WMO的警告被视为目前最明确的讯号，显示今年极端天气风险上升，全球多地都可能受影响。

摘要还提到，这种叠加效应可能让2027年成为史上最热的一年；而2024年是目前已知的破纪录厄尔尼诺年份。整体来看，数据显示未来数月到明年的气候异常风险正在上升，且影响可能超过一般年度波动。

The World Meteorological Organization said there is an 80% chance that an El Nino event develops between June and August, and a 90% chance it lasts until at least November. El Nino normally occurs every two to seven years, when weakening trade winds warm the eastern Pacific and raise the risk of extreme weather worldwide.

Scientists warned that climate change will amplify the effects of any El Nino that forms this year. The pattern typically drives higher global temperatures, disrupted rainfall, drought in some regions, heavy rain in others, and altered hurricane formation, making the coming season potentially severe.

The report says a stronger-than-usual El Nino, combined with climate change, could help make 2027 the hottest year on record. It also notes that 2024 remains the current record year, underscoring how quickly the climate baseline is shifting as numerical odds and warming trends move in the same direction.