本文将1930年代与2020年代对照，认为多边机构虽仍具制度外观，内核却空洞化。文中以 NATO、UN、WTO、NPT 和 ICC 作为“僵尸化”案例。文章也指出主因不主要在财政，尽管联合国秘书长警告因美国会费延迟而接近财务崩溃。NATO 现有32个成员，且已同意增加防务支出，但Donald Trump 的言论仍侵蚀信任：例如威胁 Denmark 与 Greenland、从 Germany 抽调美军，以及在 Vladimir Putin 与莫斯科议题上讯号模糊，削弱了对 Article V 的威慑信赖。

NPT 是本文提出的安全核心案例。该条约自1970年生效，核心在于五大核国逐步裁军、非核国家承诺不自制核武，以及在保障条件下使用和平核科技。然而2015和2022年的复审会议都未达成最终文本；目前于纽约进行、持续到5月22日的复审，在191个缔约方中再次面临第3次失败风险。主要核力量正在升级武库，美俄最后一个军控协定已到期，使盟国信心受损；从 Japan 到 Poland、Germany 的盟友已开始公开讨论国家核威慑，Tehran 在所谓“phony war”压力下，若 Iran 退出条约，将重演 North Korea 于2003年的先例并提高区域扩散风险。

WTO与司法机制也显示同样空心化。美国自 Barack Obama 政府以来阻挠 Appellate Body 任命，导致其长期无法形成法官法定人数，Trump 时代全面贸易战又再度推高 beggar-thy-neighbor 型保护主义。Michael Froman 因而称旧有全球贸易体系已“死亡”。ICC 虽于2002年成立，仍受限于美国、俄罗斯、中国与以色列未加入《罗马规约》及美国对法官与检察官的制裁。UN 层面上，美、俄、中三个安理会常任理事国反复否决关键改革与乌克兰、加萨、朝鲜半岛危机决议；法国与英国自1989年后未再否决。自1989–2014年间，每年因国家间战斗死亡人数低于15,000人，之后上升到每年约100,000人。

The article compares the 1930s and the 2020s, arguing that multilateral institutions now look formally alive but hollow. It cites NATO, the UN, WTO, NPT and ICC as “zombie” bodies. It also says the problem is not mainly money, though the UN secretary general warned of near-term financial collapse as U.S. dues are delayed. NATO has 32 members and has agreed to spend more on defense, but President Donald Trump’s rhetoric—threatening Denmark over Greenland, pulling U.S. troops from Germany, and signaling proximity to Vladimir Putin—erodes trust in Article V deterrence.

The NPT case is presented as the clearest security test. The treaty, in force since 1970, promises disarmament by the five recognized nuclear states, non-proliferation commitments for non-nuclear states, and safeguarded civilian nuclear technology. But the 2015 and 2022 review conferences ended without final documents; the New York review now running to 22 May risks a third failure among 191 parties. Major powers are upgrading arsenals, the last U.S.-Russia arms-control pact expired, and allies from Japan to Poland and Germany debate national deterrents. Tehran remains under pressure in what is described as a “phony war”, with Iran’s potential withdrawal—evoking North Korea’s 2003 exit—raising regional proliferation risk.

WTO and justice institutions show the same hollowing. U.S. blocking of Appellate Body appointments since Barack Obama left it without a quorum, and Trump-era broad trade war revived beggar-thy-neighbor protectionism. Michael Froman calls the old global trade system dead. The ICC, opened in 2002, remains constrained because the U.S., Russia, China and Israel never accepted the Rome Statute and Trump sanctioned judges and prosecutors. In the UN, the U.S., Russia and China repeatedly veto key Security Council reforms and crisis resolutions on Ukraine, Gaza and Korea, while France and Britain have not vetoed since 1989. Since 1989–2014, interstate battle deaths under 15,000 a year have risen to about 100,000 a year.