围绕段永平在2025年末采访中的争议观点展开：成功主要靠个人努力，且“社会给每个人的机会和条件都一样”。作者认可“奋斗重要”，但指出把他人的成功完全归因于个人、否认时代与结构因素，会在分裂的舆论场中激化对立，也容易伤害当下处境艰难的年轻人。

作者强调“起点不一样”常被忽视：家庭的文化资本、社会资本会在无形中塑造安全感与机会。文中以马云“18罗汉”、多次创业、90年代在核心地段购房等细节，说明所谓“白手起家”往往仍有基础支撑；并提到求职动辄“几百人竞争”、买房要“掏空六个钱包”、以及35岁职场淘汰等现实压力。

核心判断是时代红利的分配机制已变：早期改革与全球化带来“低垂果实”，个人努力的杠杆更高；如今制度套利空间收窄、竞争更卷、上升通道变窄。文中引用数据与趋势：16–24岁失业率在2022年7月达19.9%；1980–2010年高增速约10%，2010年后从9.6%走向约5%或更低；创业成功率约10%且可能低于全球约20%；并以r>g与切蒂研究（1940年出生者92%在30岁收入超父母，1980年出生者跌破50%）说明代际不平等加剧，呼吁降低不切实际预期、持续学习与坚韧，同时成功者应保有共情。

The piece critiques idol-making around investor-entrepreneur Duan Yongping and a late-2025 interview where he argued that success is mostly personal effort and that society gives everyone the same opportunities and conditions. The author agrees that effort matters and that “the era made someone” can dismiss entrepreneurship, but argues Duan’s “everyone starts equal” claim is contestable and fuels backlash in a polarized public sphere.

It frames a generational mismatch: today’s young people may be well-trained yet face hundreds of applicants for one “decent” job, expensive housing that can drain “six wallets,” and mid-career churn around age 35. The author contrasts this with earlier “low-hanging fruit” from reform and globalization (notably after China’s 2001 WTO entry), when gaps in supply, rules, and information created high leverage for effort; now the system is more complete, markets are crowded, and rent-seeking space has largely vanished.

Key numbers and trends anchor the argument: China’s 16–24 unemployment rate peaked at 19.9% in July 2022; growth averaged about 10% in 1980–2010, fell from 9.6% in 2010 to roughly 5% or lower today; entrepreneurship success is cited near 10% versus a global ~20%. Using Piketty’s r>g and Raj Chetty’s findings (92% of Americans born in 1940 earned more than parents at 30; for 1980 cohorts it drops below 50%), it warns of rising intergenerational inequality and advises lowering unrealistic expectations, continuous learning, and resilience—while urging elites to show empathy.