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华尔街对 AI 开发成本的疑虑已酝酿数月,随著投资人开始要求「花钱要看得到回报」,情绪终于爆发。微软公布看似稳健的财报,但市场更在意 Azure 成长停滞与今年预计超过 1,000 亿美元的资本支出,股价两个交易日大跌并蒸发约 3,810 亿美元市值,创下自 2020 年 3 月以来最糟的一周表现。

同一时间,Meta 预告多年来最快的季度营收成长,股价一度大涨,即使公司也宣布 2026 年资本支出可能大幅增加;但当「砸钱规模」的现实浮现,股价很快回吐部分涨幅。这种分歧凸显大型科技公司正走在狭窄钢索上:投资人愿意忍受巨额 AI 投入,但前提是成长必须跟上,否则估值就会被惩罚。

接下来市场焦点将转向同样重砸 AI 的 Alphabet 与 Amazon 财报,因四大公司今年合计资本支出预期超过 5,000 亿美元,多数流向 AI 基础设施。Alphabet 近半年强势上涨、估值升至近二十年高位,Amazon 也被期待 AWS 延续成长动能;但投资人已开始降低科技曝险,部分个股如 Oracle 在高点后大幅回落,市场担忧「多家公司花更多、换来更少」,并等待企业拿出 AI 投资变现的证据来扭转趋势。

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Wall Street’s concern about the rising cost of building AI has been simmering for months, and it is now spilling into stock prices. Microsoft delivered solid earnings, but investors focused on slowing Azure growth and an expected capital-spending bill above $100 billion this year, sending the stock sharply lower and erasing roughly $381 billion in market value over two sessions—its worst week since March 2020.

Meta’s results underscored how unforgiving the market has become: strong revenue-growth guidance pushed shares higher even as the company outlined a big jump in 2026 capex, but the enthusiasm quickly faded as investors digested the spending scale. The episode highlights a narrow tightrope for Big Tech: massive AI investment is tolerated only if growth and monetization keep pace, otherwise lofty valuations get punished.

Attention now turns to Alphabet and Amazon as they report earnings, with the biggest AI spenders expected to pour more than $500 billion into capital expenditures this year, much of it for computing infrastructure. Expectations are especially elevated for Alphabet after a surge tied to Gemini and custom processors, while Amazon faces pressure to sustain AWS momentum; meanwhile, signs of rotation away from megacap tech and sharp drawdowns in names like Oracle reflect mounting skepticism until companies can prove extraordinary AI capex yields extraordinary returns.
2026-02-02 (Monday) · 8d9fb0ec5892c39b6010f34cbeda04d96b7f9604